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Crypto Perpetual Wanderer

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夥計，你在抄我的筆記，加圖片！
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500m was a typo, all main calculations, eg 18 years, are based on 5B yearly addition.

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What does Elon Musk mean by saying that he likes the flat inflation idea of $DOGE ? Let’s dive behind the scene together! Every minute 10k new dogecoins are generated, so this is the inflation, it is flat since it is a fix number. Elon in a response to Shibetoshi Nakamoto, the creator of dogecoin said he likes this idea and sees that as a feature not a bug. But what’s good about it? First let’s see how long does it take to double the number of dogecoins with this approach. Currently we have more than 400B dogecoins. Every year there will be around 5B new dogecoins, so it takes 80 years to double the number of dogecoins. $DOGE value in worst case will be halved in 80 years. What about dollar? How many years does it take to halve its value? It actually is 20 years in average over the past century! And guess what how long does it take for doge to be one forth? Correct more than 300 years, we are way passed! So actually dollar is 2^4=16 times more inflated than doge in 100 years and 30k times worse in ~300 years! But why this inflation is good, and does it really halve its value in 80 years? To enable the community actively working on the project you should give them rewards. After all it is a dogecoin not $BTC , so miners and community, me and you, should earn something. This inflation goes to the pocket of active community (indirectly) and the miners and keeps it alive. On the other hand, unlike dollar, the inflation is not decided by a decision of a president at any moment in time, it is fixed and it is extremely difficult to change it. Moreover more dogecoin in the circulation, more negligible this little amount. The value won’t be really halved in 80 years. Since it still didn’t reach its full potential. Only after it reaches all the potential, then we can discuss whether the value is getting halved or not. What do you think? Is flat inflation, or inclined inflation a brilliant idea or a bug?

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I want to write an article on how to fish in storms? And explain how can we benefit the most in the wave of liquidation as a low risk trader. What I want to suggest is pretty simple but it needs a good understanding of market and how things work. I think it will be a rather long article since I don’t know how familiar are readers with all the concepts. Is it worth it to write? Do people read longer articles with possibly some simple math in it? It is possible though to ignore the parts you already are familiar with. Should I write it? Let me know whether it is worth of time and energy to write it.

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When to buy in bearish market? When to sell in bullish market? In dips one problem is that we don’t know how down can the market go. Then what’s a good time to buy without losing a lot and without missing the opportunity to buy cheap? Similarly in bullish market we don’t know when is a good time to sell by maximizing the profit. But we can have some strategies to help us. I give an example by using $DOGE coin as it hit near 0.5 and now is experiencing tremendous dips. Let suppose we want to invest 50$ in it. We divide it in several steps, price ranges. In each step we buy a portion of it. Lets do it with a concrete example. First define our lowest expectation from the price of coin. Of course the very lowest is 0 but to gain more we may be more realistic and eg set the lowest to eg 0.2, the price before the November hype. Then based on budget fix a step budget, eg 1,5,50, whatever you are more comfortable with. Here I take 5 which means 5$ . Let’s call this number B. Then again based on budget we divide range 0.2 to 0.45 into several steps. Let’s suppose we divide it in 10 steps let’s call this number S . So the gap is 0.25 and it means we have 0.025 differences between steps. Starting from 0.45 the first step is 0.425, second is 0.4, third is 0.375 and so on. Then what we do is to buy N$ doge in every step. At the end we bought N.B$ worth of Doge. Here it is 50$. But what happens if doge doesn’t reach the bottom? We managed to buy some in between prices. Not all of them were ideal but many are fine. We can set our first step lower, choose better bottom, shorten the gap between steps incrementally, or use doubling technique, that is in lower values buy more and such variations. This definitely is just a beginner strategy but it is less stressful and you don’t miss dips if they ever happen since it is simple to set automatic buy. Similarly for automatic sell in bullish moments, again we can use similar strategy in a reverse direction (set upper limit and incrementally sell more). Let me know what you think and what is your strategy?

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How to gain the most in bearish market: the stepping technique!

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