XRP faces potential downside pressure, with analysts warning of a possible 25% correction driven by overbought conditions that historically signal sharp pullbacks. After hitting a multi-year high of $1.63, XRP has retraced over 17% and is now trading around $1.41. Despite this decline, the altcoin still boasts significant gains from its recent rally, which delivered a remarkable 180% surge in November — its best monthly performance since April 2021.
𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐚𝐥:
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP has remained above 70 throughout November, a level often associated with overbought markets and trend exhaustion. Historical patterns reinforce this concern:
𝐈𝐧 𝐉𝐮𝐧𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑, 𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐒𝐈 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝟖𝟓 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝐭𝐰𝐨-𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐨𝐟 𝟒𝟔.𝟓%.
Similarly, November 2023 saw XRP decline by 33.6% after the RSI breached 70.
Fibonacci retracement analysis suggests that XRP could retreat to the $1.00 level, a critical psychological and technical support zone aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. A more significant pullback could see the token revisiting the 50-day EMA near $0.85. Adding to the bearish sentiment, whale holdings have slightly declined, signaling potential profit-taking, which may increase selling pressure on the asset.
𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜
Despite near-term risks, XRP maintains its long-term bullish trajectory. The recent breakout from a seven-year symmetrical triangle pattern mirrors its 2017-2018 rally, which delivered astronomical gains of 43,650%. If this historical pattern repeats, XRP could target its 2018 peak of $3.41, with extended projections eyeing the $13.93 level based on the 4.236 Fibonacci extension.
Fundamentally, Ripple’s strategic partnerships and the possibility of regulatory clarity bolster XRP’s growth potential. For instance, Ripple’s collaboration with FCA-regulated exchange Archax to launch a tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger could drive adoption further. While short-term corrections are possible, XRP’s long-term outlook remains promising, making it a compelling option for investors with a focus on future gains.
