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從10月7日:加倍押注比特幣的10月反彈,因爲MicroStrategy的股票可能會突破 -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/doubling-down-on-bitcoin-s-october-rally-as-microstrategy-shares-could-break-out
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#比特幣 $100K 觸手可及,但前方陰雲密佈...隱含波動率大幅上升
👇1-14) 比特幣的市場主導地位已超過60%,而替代幣,尤其是 #以太坊,在此次反彈中繼續滯後。比特幣勢頭的一個關鍵驅動因素是 @MicroStrategy 股票的持續上漲,這背後有兩個重要因素。爲了預期第四季度比特幣的突破,我們提出了一個概念,認爲MicroStrategy不斷上漲的股價可能對比特幣的價格產生"尾巴搖狗"的影響(在此)。這一動態源於MicroStrategy通過債務融資不斷擴大資本籌集的策略,推動比特幣價格上漲,因爲這些資金被用於積累比特幣。
👇2-14) 從這個角度來看,MicroStrategy的估值不應與比特幣的價格直接比較。比特幣本身並不是與這些資本籌集相關的負債。相反,負債與國債收益、可轉換債務,甚至更廣泛的美元池相關——MicroStrategy有效地借用這些資產以獲取比特幣。這一區別突顯了公司與其不斷增長的比特幣國庫之間的獨特關係。
👇3-14) 但是隨着隱含波動率的大幅上升,......完整報告: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-100k-within-reach-but-clouds-loom-ahead-with-implied-volatility-gapping-higher
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Bitcoin to $115,000 by Christmas? 👇1-12) Yesterday, we observed that MicroStrategy's implied volatility had risen to 200%, indicating an expected daily move of 12.6%. However, with few outstanding call options at the higher strike levels the stock had reached, the upside gamma from the options market vanished. As a result, @MicroStrategy stock dropped by 16% overnight, as traders were unwilling to buy calls at such elevated implied volatility levels. Following the 16% decline, implied volatility has surged to 270%, implying a daily move of 16%. Despite the sharp drop in MicroStrategy shares, Bitcoin has remained resilient, holding steady at $98,000. 👇2-12) As noted in our November 6 update, "Quick Update: We Expect a New SEC Chair by April/May 2025," we anticipated that current SEC Chair Gary Gensler would step down in December or January. According to a statement on the SEC website, Gensler will officially step down on January 20, 2025, coinciding with the inauguration of the new U.S. President. While this timeline aligns with our expectations, it’s possible that a new SEC Chair could be confirmed slightly earlier. 👇3-12) A new SEC Chair might approve .... -> full report: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-to-115-000-by-christmas ------- #BTC☀️
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#Bitcoin is about to break $100,000 - just as we predicted based on one of our signals... join the distribution list: https://mail.10xresearch.co/ --------
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#Bitcoin $100K Within Reach, But Clouds Loom Ahead...With Implied Volatility gapping higher 👇1-14) Bitcoin’s dominance has surged above 60%, with altcoins, particularly #Ethereum, continuing to lag in this rally. A key driver behind Bitcoin’s momentum is the relentless rally in @MicroStrategy shares, fueled by two crucial factors. In anticipation of the expected Q4 Bitcoin breakout, we introduced the concept that MicroStrategy’s rising share price could have a "tail wags the dog" effect on Bitcoin’s price (here). This dynamic stems from MicroStrategy’s strategy of consistently upsizing capital raises through debt offerings, pushing Bitcoin prices higher as these funds are used to accumulate Bitcoin. 👇2-14) Viewed through this lens, MicroStrategy’s valuation should not be directly compared to Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin itself is not the liability associated with these capital raises. Instead, the liability is tied to treasury yields, convertible debt, or even the broader US dollar pool—assets that MicroStrategy effectively borrows to acquire Bitcoin. This distinction highlights a unique relationship between the company and its growing Bitcoin treasury. 👇3-14) But with implied volatility gapping higher, there is .... full report: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-100k-within-reach-but-clouds-loom-ahead-with-implied-volatility-gapping-higher -------- #BTC☀️ #Pendle #SUI🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ENAUSDT🚨
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Traders Monitor 4 Key Catalysts That Could Drive #Bitcoin Past $100,000 Before Year-End MicroStrategy has surged +140% since our October 6 report, "Doubling Down on Bitcoin’s October Rally as @MicroStrategy Shares Could Break Out." With its market capitalization now at $88 billion, it has reached the size of companies like @Dell and @PalantirTech (>$80 billion) when they were added to the S&P 500 index and subsequently rose +7% on the announcement in early September 2024. Our October 14 report highlighted the possibility of MicroStrategy being added to the S&P 500 index on December 6, 2024. Given the substantial short interest in the stock—much of which extends beyond hedging convertible bond notes—a short squeeze could propel its share price even higher. This appears the case currently. Full report: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/traders-monitor-4-key-catalysts-that-could-drive-bitcoin-past-100-000-before-year-end ---- #SolanaUSTD #Ethereum✅
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#Bitcoin ETF Options Launch Today – Could This Be a Game-Changer for BTC? 👇1-16) The three key hurdles for listing options on Bitcoin Spot ETFs have now been cleared. The SEC approved the listing and trading of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on September 20, 2024, followed by the CFTC’s approval on November 15, and the OCC’s final clearance last night. Options trading is expected to commence on Tuesday, November 19, 2024. 👇2-16) This marks a monumental shift, as CME options on Bitcoin futures have historically struggled with low volumes and high margin requirements, and Deribit operates in a jurisdiction that restricts access for many U.S.-based funds, besides exposing traders to counterparty risk without the protection of the OCC. Consequently, options on IBIT and other Bitcoin Spot ETFs could attract significant trading volumes, potentially driving sharp price rallies in Bitcoin. 👇3-16) There are important implications for Bitcoin traders as prices could see significant impact from these options. Full report: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-etf-options-launch-today-could-this-be-a-game-changer-for-btc -----
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