Wintermute’s First Prediction Market Will Feature TRUMP and HARRIS Tokens

Cryptopolitan · 2024-09-18T06:03:06.000Z

Global HFT firm, Wintermute, will collaborate with Chaos Labs to launch their new prediction platform, Outcome Market. The platform’s first tokens will be focused on candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, launching just six weeks before the US Presidential election. The algorithmic trading firm Wintermute will join Polymarket in the crypto prediction market, launching its new Outcome Market in partnership with Chaos Labs. Wintermute will use Chaos Labs’ edge proofs Oracle in the new tokens feature The platform will have TRUMP and HARRIS tokens as its first offerings, betting on the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election. In a September 17 post, Wintermute announced it was on track to developing a permissionless smart contract for the new US presidential election prediction market. The use of permissionless contact means any trading venue can offer the tokens without charging minting or transaction fees. The newly created market will also be accessible on Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum and will use Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle to ensure accurate data transfer across chains. According to Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs, the firm has incorporated AI and LLMs into its market to allow for precise, tamper-resistant data feeds and real-time risk assessment within its protocol. He added that Edge’s design also guarantees smooth transmission of price, risk, and evidence of diverse information across ecosystems, bolstering trust and stability in prediction markets. Wintermute’s CEO, Evgeny Gaevoy, commented: Once launched, users can participate directly from their native blockchain ecosystems, removing barriers to entry and improving accessibility, making it easier and more efficient for everyone to get involved. The tokens will be usable in DeFi applications and listed on multiple trading venues, significantly expanding their utility and setting a new standard for how prediction markets operate. – Evgeny Gaevoy Trading venues Bebop, WOO X, and Backpack plan to have the new TRUMP and HARRIS tokens on their platforms. Willy Chuang, COO of WOO X, even commented, citing the relevance of decentralized smart contracts and how excited their company is to support them. He added that by building a market for these tokens, they will “empower” their users to trade fairly. CFTC intensifies scrutiny as Polymarket faces a ban on election betting Polymarket’s prediction market stirred U.S. legislators, who argued that it operated an illegal, unregistered platform for trading contracts tied to real-world events. In 2022, Polymarket agreed to restrict its contract and token use in the US. However, the platform still operates outside US markets and has over 1 million wages in relation to the US election. In August 2024, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed interest in banning prediction market tokens in the country. The CFTC issued an order to halt Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the commission, from accepting bets on the U.S. presidential election. Although a court later overturned this order, allowing Kalshi to resume its operations, the situation took a turn when the court granted stays, which prevented the market from progressing with any election betting until the case was resolved. According to CEO Gaevoy, the trading venues will decide how to deal with the U.S. markets. However, he noted that he is already aware that most if not all, do not accept U.S. crypto users.

全球高頻交易公司 Wintermute 將與 Chaos Labs 合作推出新的預測平臺 Outcome Market。該平臺的首批代幣將專注於候選人唐納德·川普和卡馬拉·哈里斯，在美國總統大選前六週推出。
演算法交易公司 Wintermute 將加入 Polymarket 的加密貨幣預測市場，並與 Chaos Labs 合作推出新的 Outcome Market。
Wintermute 將在新的代幣功能中使用 Chaos Labs 的邊緣證明 Oracle
該平臺將首次發行 TRUMP 和 HARRIS 代幣，押注即將到來的美國總統大選的結果。
Wintermute 在 9 月 17 日的一篇文章中宣佈，它正在爲新的美國總統選舉預測市場開發一個無需許可的智能合約。使用無需許可的合約意味着任何交易場所都可以提供代幣而無需收取鑄造費或交易費。
新創建的市場也將在以太坊、Base 和 Arbitrum 上訪問，並將使用 Chaos Labs 的 Edge Proofs Oracle 來確保跨鏈的準確數據傳輸。
Chaos Labs 首席執行官 Omer Goldberg 表示，該公司已將人工智能和 LLM 融入其市場，以便在其協議中實現精確、防篡改的數據饋送和實時風險評估。他補充說，Edge 的設計還保證了價格、風險和各種信息證據在生態系統中的順利傳輸，增強了預測市場的信任和穩定性。
Wintermute 首席執行官 Evgeny Gaevoy 表示：
一旦啓動，用戶可以直接從其原生區塊鏈生態系統參與，消除進入壁壘並提高可訪問性，使每個人都能更輕鬆、更高效地參與。這些代幣將可用於 DeFi 應用程序並在多個交易場所上市，大大擴展其效用併爲預測市場的運作方式樹立新標準。
 ——葉夫根尼·蓋沃伊
交易場所 Bebop、WOO X 和 Backpack 計劃在其平臺上推出新的 TRUMP 和 HARRIS 代幣。
WOO X 首席運營官 Willy Chuang 甚至發表評論，指出了去中心化智能合約的重要性，以及該公司對支持去中心化智能合約的熱情。他補充說，通過爲這些代幣建立市場，他們將“賦予”用戶公平交易的權力。
由於 Polymarket 面臨選舉博彩禁令，CFTC 加強了審查
Polymarket 的預測市場引起了美國立法者的不滿，他們認爲 Polymarket 運營着一個非法的、未註冊的平臺，用於交易與現實世界事件相關的合約。2022 年，Polymarket 同意限制其合約和代幣在美國的使用。然而，該平臺仍然在美國市場之外運營，並且有超過 100 萬條與美國大選相關的工資。
2024 年 8 月，美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 表示有意在該國禁止預測市場代幣。CFTC 發佈命令，禁止受該委員會監管的預測市場 Kalshi 接受美國總統大選的投注。儘管法院後來推翻了這項命令，允許 Kalshi 恢復運營，但情況發生了變化，法院批准了暫停令，阻止了市場在案件解決之前進行任何選舉投注。
首席執行官 Gaevoy 表示，交易所將決定如何處理美國市場。但他指出，他已經意識到，大多數（如果不是全部）交易所都不接受美國加密貨幣用戶。

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