90% 的市場預期是先牛後熊 | 幣安廣場上的 MihaiDaniel

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90% 的市場預期是先牛後熊

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Today we have these scenarios: Rate cut of 0.25% (25 basis points) - Modest signal: This indicates a minor adjustment in monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed is trying to support the economy without signaling a major crisis. - Equity market: The reaction is positive but moderate, as a small drop in interest rates encourages investment but does not suggest a significant economic problem. - Bonds: Bond prices could rise slightly due to falling yields. - Alternative assets (Bitcoin, gold): Minimal impact, but these assets could become slightly more attractive to investors looking for higher returns. Rate cut of 0.50% (50 basis points) - Moderate-strong signal: This indicates a more serious concern about the global economy and the need for stronger stimulus. - Equity market: Investors see this as a positive signal for boosting economic growth, and equities could react favorably. - Bonds: A significant reduction in yields, making bonds more attractive. - Alternative assets: Both Bitcoin and gold could benefit from a 0.50% rate cut as investors begin to seek safe havens against currency depreciation and rising inflation. Rate cut of 1% (100 basis points), that would be fabulous - Very strong signal: A drastic measure, indicating that the Fed is very concerned about the state of the economy and is trying to inject significant liquidity. - Equity market: Reaction may be mixed. Initially, stocks could rise due to lower borrowing costs, but a 1% drop could also signal panic, which could create uncertainty. - Bonds: Bond prices would rise sharply, yields would fall significantly, and investors would seek safe assets. - Alternative assets: Gold and Bitcoin could see significant gains as such a large rate cut could trigger fears of or a deeper economic crisis. Conclusion: - The rate cut of 0.25% has limited effects, but helps to stimulate the economy in the short term. - The 0.50% rate cut suggests a more serious economic - The 1% rate cut is an extreme measure, having the potential to destabilize financial markets and make alternative assets much more attractive.

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Ethereum looks weak, I put my buy order at 2.100$ , let’s see. Watch out before 18 September market might get very bumpy, Rate cuts might start soon

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If #bitcoin close the week above 60.700$ it will be a very bullish signal, on weekley time frame at that level we have 20 weekley moving average. If we close below that level it is a strong sign that we will have some potential volatility next week , i am still in my long position that i open at 54.800$ , depending on weekley close i will manage my position.

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March 2020 - Fed Rate Cut and Initial Impact 1. S&P 500: - In March 2020, the S&P 500 underwent a significant correction as the COVID-19 crisis triggered a massive selloff in equity markets. - In early March 2020, the index was down about 34% from its February 2020 highs. - After the Fed rate cut and the implementation of fiscal and monetary stimulus, the S&P 500 gradually recovered, hitting new highs during the year, ending 2020 on a high. 2. Gold: - Gold was considered a safe haven, similar to Bitcoin, and in March 2020 had an initial slight decline as investors liquidated various assets to cover losses. - However, gold quickly recovered and started to rise significantly after interest rate cuts and massive liquidity injections from the Fed. As economic uncertainty increased, the price of gold reached an all-time high in August 2020, reaching over $2,070 per ounce. 3. Bitcoin: - Bitcoin, like other assets, suffered a major fall at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, hitting a low of around $3,800 in March 2020. - After the Fed rate cut and the introduction of stimulus, Bitcoin started an accelerated growth, partially correlated with the stock markets and gold, but with higher volatility. At the end of 2020, Bitcoin reached almost $30,000, experiencing a significant increase. Long Term Correlation: - The S&P 500 and Bitcoin have shown moderate correlation in the post-rate cut period, both supported by economic stimulus and investor risk appetite. When liquidity is high and rates are low, stock markets and speculative assets such as Bitcoin tend to appreciate. - Gold had a negative or very weak correlation with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. While gold has risen as a hedge against economic uncertainties and inflation, Bitcoin has been seen by some investors as a digital alternative to gold, offering a weak correlation between the two. Performance Comparison (2020): - S&P 500: From the March low, the S&P 500 is up about 68% through the end of 2020. - Gold: From the March 2020 low, gold is up about 40% through August, ending the year with a total gain of about 25%.

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The last Fed rate cut took place in March 2020 in response to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. During that time, the Fed quickly cut rates from around 1.5% to near zero (0-0.25%). The evolution of Bitcoin in relation to this event: 1. March 2020 Immediately after the announcement of the Fed measures and during the global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin suffered a steep decline, similar to traditional markets. On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin lost about 50% of its value in a single day, dropping from over $7,000 to around $3,800. 2. Later (2020) Following this sharp drop, Bitcoin began a rapid recovery as monetary stimulus and low interest rates flooded financial markets with liquidity. These measures, along with increased interest in digital assets as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, led to a massive rise in Bitcoin by the end of 2020. 3. End of 2020 Bitcoin ended 2020 at a price of around $29,000, marking an impressive run, fueled by institutional investors and the perception that Bitcoin could function as a "store of value" similar to gold. Conclusion: The Fed's March 2020 interest rate cut indirectly contributed to a significant bull market for Bitcoin, as loose monetary policy and economic stimulus increased interest in alternative assets. Although there was a drastic drop initially, Bitcoin rose strongly in the following months.

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