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Risk_Manager
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不知道为什么我没有看到很多关于它的帖子，但有传言说
$JASMY
与苹果合作，从那时起它就开始反弹。
抓住机会，不要错过机会。
重要更新：谣言落空。这类工具可能会像瀑布一样下降 - 没有坚实的成长基础
免责声明：含第三方意见，不构成财务建议，并且可能包含赞助内容。
详见《条款和条件》。
JASMY
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Important: SPX here means S&P 500 the US index. Not anything else
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#TrumpTariffs It is impossible at the moment to measure the effect of tariffs. There is no quantitative measurement to what is happening or to the worst outcome. Market is pricing what it can: -Expected drop in company revenues -Increased recession probability -Hawkish FED (because of the sticky inflation FED cannot afford to throw money to the market to support assets) And markets don’t like uncertainty. $BTC holds relatively good for a number reasons: - Likely Tether is buying and some other big buyers (GME for example) - In ETF only up to 5% is invested in BTC, people are more worried about other investments such as SPX. They simply don’t sell. At least yet, outflows are relatively slow. - Whatever My personal expectation: Worst case: it will take 3 to 6 months for FED to start helping as unemployment gets worse. Would not be surprised by SPX going to 40% down from the top, and 60% BTC. Best case: admin pivots, market ranges till stimulus is provided
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#BTC Short update. $BTC is now obviously decoupled from alts and ETH, however, it goes hand in hand with tradifi markets, especially close to the US risk assets. Generally speaking, BTC is S&P500 beta. Their correlation reaches 90+%. So you can use SPX in your analysis and all the tradifi data such as: 10 year bond yield, CPI, M2/DXY, Home Sales and so on. The tricky part is that capital is moving away from the US market EU markets and others, and BTC is global, so they might decouple as well- which is not that obvious trade (i.e. short the US stocks, long BTC) On the sentiment: growth scare is pretty much priced in, inflation is out of control at the moment, and the economic data is still strong. If the US economic data will start signs of weakness, SPX might correct up to 40%, and BTC will nuke significantly. If numbers stay strong, ranging and much higher is plausible scenario to expect
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#BTCMove We will most likely nuke from here. Potentially 80K should hold. But with all the liquidity below the current support it is very unlikely that BTC won’t grab that and cause late over leveraged long liquidations in cascade. However, it is very unlikely that top is in. Most likely, top will come somewhere soon, and the price will be pretty disappointing (below 150K). That will be multi month top or an absolute top before the bear market is in.
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$BTC update Closure above previous weekly swing high will create a bullish structure (if we close this week above 64800 or so). Higher low and higher high will look pretty good as of the market structure. Overall momentum is bullish with China monetary stimulus and the US loosing monetary policy. Also, FTX repayment is in USD, and will partially circulate back into the market. However, closure below 65 might signify lower high, plus there is some level of the uncertainty partially attributed to the US election and the overall economy strength+ WW3 FUD with things going a bit ugly in the Middle East. I might bid on leverage the retest at 65K if there is strong closure above this level, and some retest afterwards. If not- comfy in spot (read: looking at my bag and crying but hodling).
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实时新闻
比特币价格波动或引发 CEX 清算强度变化
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BTC 突破 98,000 USDT，24 小时涨幅0.80%
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币安早报（5月8日）
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中信证券：金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，银行经营预期中性偏正向
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DeFi Development Corp. 批准 1 拆 7 股票分割，流通股增至 1400 万股
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