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Don't Buy The Bitcoin Dip Now is not the time to make sizable bitcoin purchases. With bitcoin’s price dipping significantly below 100k again, the “buy the dip” cheerleaders are out in full force. But I’m here to offer a different perspective: Don’t buy the dip. Before I continue, let me please make it clear that nothing that I write in this Take is investment advice. Why would I say such a thing? Is it that I hate bitcoin all of a sudden? No. I have other reasons for making such a statement. The first is that I’m trying to keep you from becoming exit liquidity for people like this: The second is that I like to buy bitcoin when it’s truly selling at a discount, not just when it appears to be selling at one. Let me explain. Right now, bitcoin is trading about 13% off of its all-time highs. While that may be a significant discount for an asset in the world of traditional finance, it’s hardly more than a daily fluctuation in the world of bitcoin. In the four-year bitcoin cycles, bitcoin’s price tends to skyrocket during the years of and after its halving. And then the year that follows tends to be pretty terrible for bitcoin’s price. During that year, bitcoin’s price hits a low, which tends to be in the range of the prior cycle’s high. That was a bit confusing, so let me give you an example. I try to maximize the financial upside (in fiat terms) of investing in bitcoin as much as possible for those who ask me about investing in it — especially those who are new to it. And while I could maybe help someone trade in and out of a bitcoin position in the next year or so, I don’t like to do this, as I encourage people to buy and hold bitcoin for the long haul. But, Frank, the U.S. might announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and other nations may follow suit! And look at all the companies buying bitcoin for their treasuries! Yes, these things are happening, and so are things like Bhutan selling bitcoin and so have things like Germany selling bitcoin and Tesla selling bitcoin. #BTC

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