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Caro_13
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行情分析:
目前是超跌后的反弹修复,看似反弹回暖,实则无力,日线十字星,依旧是弱势形态,关注99500附近,站不上去可空。
操作思路:
短线为主,见好就收。
大饼98000附近做空,目标 95500 , 不破可反手做多。
以太3420附近做空,目标 3250,不破可反手做多。
#BTC
免责声明:含第三方意见,不构成财务建议,并且可能包含赞助内容。
详见《条款和条件》。
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#USChinaTensions Escalating Trade War and Tariffs** The U.S.-China trade conflict has intensified in 2025, with both nations imposing punitive tariffs: - **U.S. tariffs on China** have surged to **up to 245%** on some goods, including a **20% tariff targeting fentanyl-related imports** and **Section 301 tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 100%** . - **China’s retaliatory tariffs** now stand at **125%** on U.S. goods, alongside restrictions on rare earth mineral exports critical for U.S. defense and tech industries . - The **WTO warns** that this tit-for-tat escalation could **reduce bilateral trade by 80%**, with broader global GDP losses of up to **7%** . **Economic Impact**: - China’s Q1 2025 GDP grew **5.4%** (above forecasts), but analysts predict a sharp slowdown due to tariffs, with 2025 growth forecasts slashed to **3.4–4.5%** (from 5.0%) . - U.S. firms and consumers are also feeling the strain, with **50% of Americans** believing tariffs will harm the U.S. economy, including **75% of Democrats** .
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$BTC Market Context** - **Crypto Market Cap**: Rose **2.03%** to **$2.88 trillion**, with spot volume up **5.18%** . - **Altcoins**: Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) saw modest gains, while tokens like **$LOOM** (+153%) and **$TAO** (+9.09%) outperformed . - **NFTs and DeFi**: NFT trading volume spiked **15%**, and DeFi TVL grew **0.3%** . **Risks and Volatility** - Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. Trump's trade tariffs previously triggered an **8.5% drop** in BTC, highlighting its volatility . - The **Fear & Greed Index** improved to 39 (from lower levels), but market uncertainty persists .
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#BTCRebound Price Recovery and Key Levels** - Bitcoin surged past **$87K**, reaching **$87,435**, marking a **2.68% increase** in 24 hours . - Some reports indicate even higher peaks, with BTC touching **$88,400**, nearly erasing losses from early April . - Analysts highlight **$91,000** as a critical resistance level. A daily close above this could signal a bullish trend, while failure might lead to a drop toward **$71,000** . *Catalysts for the Rebound** - **Dollar Weakness**: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hit a **three-year low**, driven by political uncertainty after President Trump's push to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This weakened the dollar, boosting BTC and gold . - **Macro Sentiment**: Trade tensions and Fed policy speculation have increased Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge. Liquidity trends (e.g., M2 money supply growth) could further support BTC . - **Institutional Moves**: Metaplanet Inc. acquired **330 BTC** (~$28.2M), signaling institutional confidence .
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$TRX Regulatory Context** - The **SEC has not yet approved** any crypto ETF with staking features. A decision on Grayscale’s similar Ethereum ETF staking proposal was recently postponed . - Analysts suggest the **current SEC leadership** (under a pro-crypto administration) may be more open to such proposals . Market Impact & Predictions** - **TRX Price Reaction**: - TRX rose from **$0.05 to $0.065** post-announcement, with a **10% market cap increase** . - Technical indicators (RSI, MACD) showed **bullish signals** . - **Long-Term TRX Price Forecasts**: - **2025**: $0.39–$0.73 (average ~$0.56) . - **2030**: Up to **$3.55** if adoption accelerates .
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#TRXETF Canary Capital’s TRX ETF Filing** - **Filing Date**: April 18, 2025 - **Key Features**: - Tracks **TRX spot price** while offering **staking rewards** (~4.5% annual yield) . - Uses **BitGo as custodian** and **CoinDesk Indices** for pricing data . - Filed under **SEC Form S-1**, marking one of the first U.S. proposals for a staked altcoin ETF . . Justin Sun’s Confirmation** - Justin Sun, Tron’s founder, confirmed the filing on **April 19, 2025**, via social media, sparking a **35% surge in TRX trading volume** . - The ETF aims to combine **price exposure** with **passive income** through staking, differentiating it from previous crypto ETFs
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