According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin futures traders added over a billion dollars to Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) following the release of the United States Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, which some analysts believe confirms a potential rate cut in September.
On August 22, Bitcoin futures OI rose to $31.92 billion, marking an increase of $1.26 billion within 12 hours. OI represents the total number of unsettled derivative contracts, such as options or futures. An increase in OI suggests greater trader confidence in predicting Bitcoin’s price direction, whether upward or downward. However, data indicates that traders are divided on Bitcoin’s future price movement.
During the 12-hour period, long traders held a slight edge with 50.63% of total future positions, compared to 49.37% for short positions, according to CoinGlass data. Bitcoin’s price is currently trading at $60,623, a level it has maintained since August 9, as per CoinMarketCap data. Bitcoin has seen a 2.26% increase over the past 24 hours.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, commented that the Fed’s minutes make a rate cut in September almost certain. He noted that a “vast majority” of FOMC members supported a rate cut in September, with some even considering a July cut as a plausible option. Pseudonymous crypto trader Sykodelic added that Bitcoin appears ready to break higher, citing the dovish tone of the Fed minutes.
When interest rates drop, investors typically shift from safe assets like bonds and term deposits to riskier assets like Bitcoin. Crypto commentator Nishant Bhardwaj predicted an explosive fourth quarter for US and Indian markets, citing the Fed’s potential rate cut. Thielen also mentioned that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech is expected to reinforce this dovish outlook, likely boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, on August 15, Caldwell Investment Management portfolio manager Justin Elliot expressed skepticism, stating there is no support for the aggressive rate cut expectations from the Fed.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.