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4. New Use Cases for Cryptocurrencies The last three points have mainly focused on speculation in this cycle. But for cryptocurrency to truly be sustainable in the long term, we need stronger use cases to emerge. AI, gaming, and DeFi all seem like obvious candidates, but they have yet to find their footing. The infrastructure has significantly improved since 2021 (despite the price declines). I’m hopeful this will lead to the development of several killer dApps. Cryptocurrencies only need 2-3 breakthroughs to drive widespread adoption. This cycle feels very much like “short-term overvaluation and long-term undervaluation,” at least for now. In conclusion, yes—retail trading has largely retreated. There are solid reasons for this, and this cycle is fundamentally different because of them. But it won’t take much to bring retail trading back. And that day will come sooner than you think.
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On January 1, 2024, Bitcoin was trading at $43,000, with just 10 days left until the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF. Then, on January 10, the Bitcoin Spot ETF officially launched. History was made. What surprised many, including myself, was the overwhelming demand for these ETFs in the short term. Over the course of the year, more than $17 billion was invested in Bitcoin spot ETFs. These positive inflows became the catalyst for a massive Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs (ATH) of $73,000, along with several other macro factors. So, with Bitcoin reaching new ATHs, it would seem logical to expect that altcoins would also skyrocket, just like in 2021—right? Not quite. There are several reasons for this, and understanding them is crucial to answering the questions posed at the beginning of this discussion. Let’s break them down. 1. The primary driver of this cycle has been the Bitcoin ETF. This is vastly different from the previous cycle, where the main driver was macroeconomic conditions. 2. The dynamics of ETFs have completely changed the flow of liquidity. Since most of the new liquidity is now directed into ETFs, it doesn’t flow directly into altcoins, which has radically altered market dynamics this cycle. 3. Altcoin dispersion is greater than ever. The equation is simple: too many new launches, not enough fresh liquidity. 4. Retail traders were burned in 2022. This brings us back to the initial context of this discussion. 2022 dealt a heavy blow, both psychologically and reputationally. 5. There’s a lack of fundamental belief in crypto investing. In 2021, people invested for the long term, with genuine hope and excitement about the potential for this space and its technologies to change the world. Now, everything seems tired. Most of the market participants today are seasoned veterans. There’s a growing mistrust towards altcoins, even toward project founders with good intentions—and who can blame them?
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Where is Retail Trading Now, and Will It Ever Return to Cryptocurrencies? The entire bull market hinges on these two questions. In this discussion, I'll address them in depth. To truly understand whether retail trading will ever return, we need to look back at what brought us to this point. 2021 was a breakout year for cryptocurrencies. From March 2020 to November 2021, the cryptocurrency market surged by 2,672%, with many altcoins delivering 50-100x returns or more. It was the perfect storm. While Bitcoin was a strong performer, altcoins stole the spotlight. Coins like SOL, FTM, AVAX, and LUNA saw gains of 500x or more. During this time, choosing specific assets wasn't crucial; you could pick nearly any coin and see quick profits. But as is often the case with bubbles, it all ended in disaster. It's important to remember that 80% of profits are typically made in the final 20% of a cycle. Moreover, it is during these last 20% that retail investors flood the market. Cryptocurrencies are highly reflexive assets, meaning that as prices rise, the market attracts more attention, which in turn fuels further price increases. This reflexivity is what creates so many opportunities in the market. Cryptocurrency technically peaked in November 2021. But the final devastating blow came in May 2022 with the collapse of LUNA and UST. In just a few days, $45 billion was wiped off the market, leading to hundreds of billions in losses across the broader cryptocurrency market. For many retail investors, this was their first experience with the real risks of cryptocurrencies—and investing in general. Unfortunately, the pain was exacerbated by the fallout from the LUNA crash and the dubious practices of various bad actors. These included: - Celsius - BlockFi - Voyager And, of course, the infamous FTX, one of the largest and, at the time, most trusted cryptocurrency exchanges. 2021 saw the largest influx of new participants in cryptocurrency history. Crypto was everywhere: in football stadiums, on national television,
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Almost everything in this world is controlled and manipulated to enrich the elite. Food, healthcare, finance, education—you name it. All these industries thrive by following a set path designed to guarantee maximum profit for those who hold power. It doesn’t matter how many people may suffer or die; everything revolves around money. Wars, to be specific, are one of the most horrific yet profitable ways to make money: the sale of weapons, reconstruction contracts, resource exploitation, and geopolitical influence. Behind every conflict, you’ll find the bloody hand of elite profit-making. The more you learn, the more you’ll realize just how corrupt this world is. The more you'll understand how much deception we are fed. Financial markets are especially interesting because they are the epitome of manipulation. Once you start analyzing charts, you’ll see just how easily the puppet masters trap retail traders.
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The market acts like a pendulum, swinging between extremes of optimism and pessimism. Investors often overreact, either celebrating good news or obsessing over bad news, which results in assets being overvalued or undervalued. This cycle repeats constantly, with the market spending more time at extremes than in a balanced middle. When prices suddenly drop, it’s often due to a shift in perception rather than actual changes in market conditions. Investors tend to focus on either positive or negative aspects depending on the prevailing sentiment, which distorts their interpretation of events. During optimistic phases, they see only the good and ignore the bad; when sentiment turns negative, the reverse happens, leading to sharp price swings. A great way to gauge the market's strength is by observing its reaction to significant news that contradicts the current trend. In a strong market, even major negative news is downplayed or absorbed with minimal effect, while in a weak market, even minor news that goes against the trend can provoke an overreaction. This response acts as a barometer for the market’s underlying strength or vulnerability.
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