Crowd Money Sentiment Remains Bullish, Expecting a Recovery After the July Dip

Cryptopolitan · 2024-07-09T14:43:02.000Z

Santiment’s metrics reveal that crowd money is more bullish than during previous price dips. In the past few days, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) sank to a lower range, but managed to recover and bounce. Crowd money metrics, as opposed to smart money, measures the behavior of a bigger pool of retail traders. In the past days, some of the most watched whale wallets turned to selling, but retail traders were already used to the volatile nature of crypto. The latest data show crowd money is bullish, instead of spreading fear of a bigger dip. Also Read: Cboe files for VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs with the U.S. SEC Metrics of crowd money show the mass of investors expects a relatively fast recovery after the recent shakedown. The sentiment, however, can be misleading as to the real direction of the market, where the shakedown can continue. Based on “buy the dip” messages, small-scale traders are taking a chance on an easy recovery and almost immediate gains. At the same time, some social media carry a bearish message, especially for BTC, expecting further slides as low as $40,000. The current price level for BTC and ETH is viewed with skepticism, both as a chance to increase spot positions, but also as a risk for further dips. 🧐📊 If you're considering buying the dip, note that the crowd is anticipating a rebound themselves. Ideally, one of these dramatic dips is met with FUD and panic. Historically, most turnarounds occur immediately after the average traders have given up hope on crypto. pic.twitter.com/6St0yzefnB — Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 8, 2024 At least in the short term, the market did recover, taking some assets up more than 10% in 24 hours. The current calls contradict the data from the crypto fear and greed index, which dipped to 27 points, the lowest since 2022. Yet this time, the market is in a much better shape compared to 2022, with most major assets recovered and relatively close to their all-time highs. The last time the index was under 30, Solana (SOL) had already dipped close to its lows under $10. Is the market bottom already realized? The big question of sentiment is whether the market bottom has already happened. BTC sank as low as $53,000 and has not repeated that range in the past week. Additionally, some of the biggest liquidations for BTC traders are already completed, leaving the asset to rise. According to Santiment, the recent market crash already caused a capitulation of some holders, switching the coins to other whales. 👋 There are currently 54.09M non-empty Bitcoin wallets on the network, dropping by a net of 566K since June 15th. Patient bulls should be pleased with this, as self-liquidating wallets from impatient non-believers is a sign of FUD-causing bottoms, just like we saw in January. pic.twitter.com/h2jK9YvCf9 — Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 9, 2024 At the current price, year-old wallets have only very slim gains of 1.8%. According to Santiment, this may be a bullish signal for a trend reversal, similar to the rally above $20,000. During all of the recent market shakedowns, the coins sold often ended up in large-scale wallets with more than 10K BTC, the biggest beneficiaries of the latest market correction. Bitcoin sentiment shifts quickly BTC has returned to slightly higher volatility, which means sentiment can shift quickly. During this bull cycle, the leading asset did not reach the predicted all-time highs, but remained healthier than ever. Markets showed they can absorb selling from miners, whales, as well as government wallets. Even ETF buying returned quickly, after more than a week of net outflows. Fidelity leads the way with $BTC ETF inflowsGrayscale coming in secondFollowed by Ark and Bitwise Smart money buying the #Bitcoin dip💪 pic.twitter.com/qdS5pMJGl7 — Eric | Selected Investments (@SelectedInvests) July 9, 2024 Additionally, the 2024 market did not see the same levels of hype and trading volumes as in 2021. At the same time, the market is well supplied with stablecoins, and decentralized finance manages to tame volatility for now. One of the tell-tale signs of a healthy market is the behavior of retail investors. In previous bull cycles, the Coinbase app rose to the top in terms of downloads. The 2024 cycle has not created such a craze. VC funding, token sales and new launches are also at a lower baseline level. Also Read: EOS Network unveils a 250M staking program During the current cycle, ETH prices are also seen as an indicator of market moves. ETH traded at $3,081.56, after recent signs of selling from whale wallets. But ETH returned to stability quickly, supporting its decentralized finance ecosystem. Sentiment for ETH shifted, as crowd money became more bearish, while smart money showed cautious optimism. Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva

Santiment 的指标显示，众筹资金比之前的价格下跌时更为看涨。在过去几天里，比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 跌至较低区间，但成功恢复并反弹。
与精明货币相反，众筹货币指标衡量的是更大群体散户交易者的行为。在过去几天里，一些最受关注的鲸鱼钱包转向抛售，但散户交易者已经习惯了加密货币的波动性。最新数据显示，众筹货币是看涨的，而不是传播对更大跌幅的恐惧。
另请阅读：Cboe 向美国 SEC 提交 VanEck 和 21Shares Solana ETF 的文件
众筹指标显示，大多数投资者预计在最近的动荡之后会出现相对较快的复苏。然而，这种情绪可能会误导市场的真正方向，市场的震荡可能会持续下去。
基于「逢低买进」的讯息，小规模交易者正在抓住机会，享受轻松复苏和几乎立竿见影的收益。同时，一些社群媒体传达了看跌讯息，尤其是对比特币而言，预计比特币将进一步跌至 4 万美元。人们对 BTC 和 ETH 目前的物价水准持怀疑态度，这不仅是增加现货部位的机会，也是进一步下跌的风险。 
🧐📊 如果您正在考虑逢低买入，请注意，人群本身也在预期反弹。理想情况下，这些急剧下跌之一会引起 FUD 和恐慌。从历史上看，大多数转变发生在普通交易者放弃对加密货币的希望之后。 pic.twitter.com/6St0yzefnB
- Santiment (@santimentfeed) 2024 年 7 月 8 日
至少在短期内，市场确实有所复苏，有些资产在24小时内涨幅超过10%。目前的预测与加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数的数据相矛盾，该指数已跌至 27 点，为 2022 年以来的最低点。 
然而，与 2022 年相比，这次的市场状况要好得多，大多数主要资产都已恢复，并且相对接近历史高点。上次该指数低于 30 时，Solana (SOL) 已跌至接近 10 美元以下的低点。
市场底部已经实现了吗？
情绪的一个大问题是市场是否已经触底。 BTC 跌至 53,000 美元，并且在过去一周没有重复该区间。此外，比特币交易者的一些最大的清算已经完成，导致该资产上涨。 
据 Santiment 称，最近的市场崩盘已经导致一些持有者投降，将代币转向其他鲸鱼。 
👋 目前全网非空比特币钱包数量为 5,409 万个，自 6 月 15 日以来净减少 56.6 万个。耐心的多头应该对此感到满意，因为不耐烦的非信徒的自我清算钱包是 FUD 造成底部的迹象，就像我们在一月份看到的那样。 pic.twitter.com/h2jK9YvCf9
- Santiment (@santimentfeed) 2024 年 7 月 9 日
以目前的价格计算，一年前的钱包仅有 1.8% 的微薄涨幅。 Santiment 表示，这可能是趋势逆转的看涨讯号，类似于 20,000 美元以上的反弹。
在最近的所有市场调整中，出售的代币往往最终进入了拥有超过 10K BTC 的大型钱包，这是最近市场调整的最大受益者。
比特币情绪迅速转变
比特币的波动性已经恢复到略高的水平，这意味著情绪可能会迅速转变。在本次牛市周期中，领先资产并未达到预期的历史高点，但仍比以往任何时候都更健康。市场表明，它们可以吸收来自矿商、鲸鱼以及政府钱包的抛售。 
在经历了一周多的净流出之后，甚至 ETF 买盘也迅速回升。 
富达 (Fidelity) 以 BTC ETF 流入量领先灰阶 (Grayscale) 位居第二，其次是 Ark 和 Bitwise
聪明的钱购买#比特币下跌💪 pic.twitter.com/qdS5pMJGl7
— 艾瑞克 |精选投资 (@SelectedInvests) 2024 年 7 月 9 日
此外，2024 年的市场没有出现与 2021 年相同水准的炒作和交易量。 
市场健康的标志之一是散户投资者的行为。在先前的多头周期中，Coinbase 应用程式的下载量跃居榜首。 2024年周期并没有掀起这样的热潮。创投、代币销售和新品发布也处于较低的基准水平。 
另请阅读：EOS 网路推出 250M 质押计划
在当前周期中，ETH 价格也被视为市场趋势的指标。在最近出现鲸鱼钱包抛售迹象后，ETH 交易价格为 3,081.56 美元。但 ETH 很快就恢复了稳定，支撑了其去中心化金融生态系统。 
随著群众资金变得更加悲观，而聪明资金则表现出谨慎乐观，以太坊的情绪发生了变化。
克里斯蒂娜·瓦西列娃 (Hristina Vasieva) 的《密码城》报道

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