One of the users behind Polymarket accounts making substantial bets on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election reportedly stated he was only focused on profit, not politics.
According to a Nov. 1 report, Wall Street Journal journalists identified a French national linked to Polymarket accounts under names like Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. These accounts, allegedly managed by one individual known as “Théo,” have placed approximately $38 million in bets on Trump’s 2024 election success.
As of publication, Polymarket had roughly $2.9 billion in bets on either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris winning in 2024, with Trump currently favored at 60.3%. This stands in contrast to many national polls in the U.S., which show both candidates nearly tied ahead of Election Day on Nov. 5.
“I have absolutely no political agenda,” said Théo, according to the WSJ report. He clarified his objective on Polymarket as “just making money.”
Unlike platforms like Kalshi, which legally permits U.S.-based users to wager on election outcomes following a court victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket restricts access to non-U.S. users only. This setup allows foreign participants with deep pockets to place millions in bets, potentially skewing odds in their favor and influencing what some view as a proxy for polling.
With only four days left until the U.S. election, Théo’s accounts hold about $7 million in shares predicting Trump’s popular vote victory, $27 million on Trump winning through the Electoral College, $3.4 million on Harris losing the popular vote, and approximately $800,000 on Harris losing the presidency. This could lead to a significant payout if Trump prevails.
Early voting ends in many U.S. states on Nov. 1, though some extend to Election Day. Election results, expected to be extremely close, might not be announced until days after polls close on Nov. 5. Vice President Harris made what some called a ‘closing argument’ speech on Oct. 29 in Washington, D.C., but has largely avoided discussing digital assets as her campaign nears its end.
