According to BlockBeats, Matrixport released a research report on August 2, indicating that Bitcoin's momentum has recently weakened, but the outlook for the fourth quarter remains positive. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's trading range is narrowing, suggesting an imminent breakout from its consolidation phase. The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and favorable conditions in the fourth quarter, coupled with potential boosts from the U.S. presidential election results, lead to the anticipation that Bitcoin will achieve a breakthrough in the coming weeks.

The Federal Reserve has not adjusted interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that if inflation develops as expected, a decision to cut rates could be made at the September meeting. Matrixport's inflation model predicts that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will gradually decline over the next 12 months. The Fed's rate cuts could continue for several quarters, with a reduction of 25 basis points at each meeting. This would provide liquidity and stimulus for risk assets like Bitcoin. The current interest rate stands at 5.25%, with an inflation rate of 3.0%, reflecting the Fed's restrictive rate policy. This suggests that the central bank may significantly cut rates over the next 12 months.

Bitcoin is about to enter its most challenging two months. Historically, August's returns tend to be flat, while September usually sees a period of weak performance. Several factors could contribute to this cyclical pattern, including lower trading volumes during summer holidays and traders awaiting autumn economic indicators and central bank policy decisions, which bring market uncertainty.