Each wave of market adjustment involves two dimensions, time and space. Either the space is in place or the time is in place. In 2023, each wave of large-scale adjustments of Bitcoin ranged from 20% to 25%:

- Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in March 2023 (from 25,000 to 19,000)

- Mid-April to mid-June 2023 (from 31,000 to 24,000)

- Early July to August 2023 (from 31,000 to 24,000, and bottomed out again in September)

- Mid-January 2024 (from 49,000 to 38,000)

- Two waves of adjustments from April this year to date (from 73,000 to 56,000, and from 71,000 to 53,000)

This is a law of amplitude, and there is also a law of time. Since the bear market in 2022, each wave of major adjustments has not lasted more than two months, and large adjustments (double tops) have not lasted more than four months. When the time is right, there will either be a big rebound or a real reversal. You can look at the candlestick chart to verify this.

It was previously discussed that the adjustment since 73,000 in mid-March is similar to the situation in the second and third quarters of 2023. In mid-June, it was believed that the limit of Bitcoin would reach the low of 56,000 in early May. In early July, it actually fell below 56,000. Although the magnitude was not accurately judged (the actual decline was 27%), the judgment on time was relatively accurate. Sometimes, the time dimension is also a very important rule.

For the subsequent trend, it cannot be completely regarded as a reversal, although the market sentiment is good: driven by interest rate cuts and expectations of Trump's victory. However, there may be a short-term ebb after the high sentiment. After the expectation of interest rate cuts is fulfilled, will there be a situation of "sell the news"? I think it is possible. It was also mentioned before that this year is more like 1995 and 2019. The economic situation improved and the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates, but at that time, the market also had a small-level adjustment after the first interest rate cut, and then rose again. Moreover, if we refer to the second and third quarters of last year, after hitting the bottom in August, there was a second bottom in September.

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