After falling by $10,000, the Bitcoin cryptocurrency decided to correct itself slightly. We can assume that the attempt to gain a foothold below the Ichimoku cloud on the 24-hour time frame ended in failure. A breakout of the Senkou Span B line happened, but it turned out to be false. At this time, the cryptocurrency has worked the Kijun-sen line (as we predicted), from which it has rebounded and, accordingly, may resume its fall. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete and are waiting for its next round. Meanwhile, Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel said in an interview that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of 2025, and its volatility will become significantly lower. According to Thiel, Bitcoin continues its development path and will become more stable every year. Thiel also considers Bitcoin the best investment vehicle because it has one advantage that money or stocks do not have. This plus is the limited supply of coins. The supply of Bitcoin on the market will decrease every year, which will support its further growth. Each subsequent “halving” will mean a halving of the reward for miners. Consequently, they will mine fewer blocks and coins, and the supply in the market is bound to decrease. Thiel also believes that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will lead to increased investment from institutions and large investors. At the same time, Mr. Thiel believes that there are also high risks when investing in Bitcoin. In particular, he noted that factors such as global geopolitics, the US dollar, Fed monetary policy, inflation and others continue to impact volatile Bitcoin. Due to its increased volatility, many potential investors refuse to buy it.
From our point of view, Bitcoin can certainly continue to rise, but we remain skeptical about all forecasts like “$100,000 by the end of the year” or “$150,000 in 2025.” Mr. Thiel forgets that in addition to a decrease in supply, for Bitcoin to grow, it also requires maintaining the current volume of demand. We cannot say that the demand for Bitcoin is falling globally, but still Bitcoin remains just a piece of code, unlike gold. We would also like to remind you that limited emission is a very conditional concept for cryptocurrency, which, in fact, is a piece of software code. And if there is code, then there are programmers who can correct it. On the 24-hour time frame, Bitcoin rolled back slightly, but we believe that the fall will resume, since the market has already fully taken into account the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and is now taking profits on longs. Therefore, we think that buying now is not advisable, but short positions with a target of $34,267 are yes. This is a very real prospect, despite all the mind-blowing forecasts that “experts” regularly share with us. Only around the levels of $34,267 and $31,000 will we consider the restoration of the bullish trend.
