According to PANews, Token Unlocks data shows that TIA, SUI, and OP tokens will see significant unlocks this week, including:
Celestia (TIA) will unlock approximately 175.6 million tokens on October 30 at 10 PM UTC+8, accounting for 79.75% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $941 million;
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens on November 1 at 8 AM UTC+8, accounting for 2.32% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $116 million;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on October 31 at 8 AM UTC+8, accounting for 2.50% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $49.5 million;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 32.47 million tokens on November 1 at 8 AM UTC+8, accounting for 1.98% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $43.19 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens on November 1 at 8 AM UTC+8, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $6.2 million;
dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens on November 1 at 8 AM UTC+8, accounting for 1.29% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $8.1 million;
Manta Network (MANTA) will unlock approximately 1.87 million tokens on November 1 at 7:59 AM UTC+8, accounting for 0.49% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $1.2 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens on October 30 at 3 PM UTC+8, accounting for 0.47% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $4.5 million;
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) will unlock approximately 3.5 million tokens on October 28 at 8 AM UTC+8, accounting for 0.13% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $4.3 million;
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens on October 30 at 3 AM UTC+8, accounting for 0.69% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $3.8 million.
● Morgan Stanley analyst: The 2024 US presidential election may exacerbate market volatility
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen analyzed the potential impact of the 2024 US presidential election on the market in their report, noting mixed economic signals and increased investor uncertainty.
They explained that fluctuations in consumer sentiment and persistently high prices are affecting voters' views, while traditional market indicators fail to provide clear predictions of election outcomes. Nonetheless, Guerra and Kohen believe that business and economic cycles may be more correlated with market performance.
Analysts advise investors to focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting to election-driven market changes. Delays in election results may lead to increased volatility; historically, this has caused short-term market fluctuations to intensify. Due to tight polls in key swing states and unpredictable mail-in ballot counting times, final results may take several days or even weeks to reveal, potentially triggering significant market turmoil.
Guerra and Kohen expect that as the campaign accelerates, proposals become more intense, and competition for swing state voters heats up, the final stretch of election day will be fraught with controversy. Unexpected political events or disclosures may have a slight impact on the election, and mail-in voting and phased counting may leave election results undecided for a while, exacerbating market volatility.
According to Wu Says Blockchain, last week the IMF lowered its global economic forecast for next year, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated continued weakness in the US economy; this week will see a dual 'bombardment' of inflation and employment indicators from the Federal Reserve, with the strong combination of US September core PCE and October non-farm payroll report being important factors affecting the Fed's subsequent rate cut pace.
Key events this week (UTC+8)
October 30
US October ADP employment numbers (10,000) (20:15) Preliminary annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q3 US (20:30) Preliminary annualized quarterly core PCE price index for Q3 US (20:30)
October 31
Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and outlook report; US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26 (10,000) (20:30) US September core PCE price index year-on-year (20:30)
November 01
US October unemployment rate (20:30) US October seasonally adjusted non-farm employment numbers (10,000) (20:30)
● CME 'Fed Watch': The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November is 97.7%
According to Jin Shi Data, the CME 'Fed Watch' indicates that the probability of the Fed cutting by 25 basis points in November is 97.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 2.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate in December is 0.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 27.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 71.7%.
● Nic Carter: The hype around meme coins is a response to the SEC's oppressive regulation
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, stated on his social platform that the hype around meme coins is largely a reaction to the SEC's oppressive regulation.
Nic Carter also stated that if the SEC regulates rationally, the demand for trading meme coins in the market will decrease. However, just like in the past decade, the fundamental desire to trade meme tokens always exists.
● Analysis: Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands have recently narrowed to historical lows
According to Golden Finance, technical analyst Tony Severino stated that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands are currently at one of the three narrowest levels in history, indicating that a significant price change is imminent. Bollinger Bands are an indicator used to measure price volatility and trend direction, and when they narrow to their tightest level, it is typically referred to as a 'Bollinger Squeeze', which means the market is in a low volatility state, potentially creating conditions for a strong breakout.
Historical data shows that when Bollinger Bands narrow, Bitcoin's price tends to experience significant movements. For example, similar contractions occurred in April 2016 and July 2023, both followed by substantial price increases. However, the contraction of Bollinger Bands can only indicate the possibility of volatility, not predict the direction of the movement, which means the market could experience a significant rise or a sharp decline.
Statistics show that in nine cases following the contraction of Bollinger Bands, Bitcoin had seven instances of price increases.
Note: Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band, upper band, and lower band, used to measure market volatility. When the bands narrow, it indicates a period of low volatility in the market; when the bands widen, it indicates increased volatility. A Bollinger Squeeze refers to the extreme contraction of the bands, signaling a market breakout.
