According to Cointelegraph, Ether (ETH) has significantly underperformed Bitcoin (BTC), reaching a three-and-a-half-year low against Bitcoin on September 18, a level last seen in 2021. This development raises questions about whether this low presents a buying opportunity or if Ether will continue to lag behind Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has experienced sideways price action for several months, but some analysts predict that its price could break out of this range and reach a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of this year. However, the same optimism is not extended to Ether, which remains far below its lifetime high. Polymarket, a leading prediction market, indicates an 85% probability that Ether will not achieve a new all-time high in 2024.
Despite this, there is some hope for Ether bulls. Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer suggested in a September 17 blog post that Ether could be a “potential contrarian bet through the end of the year.”
Analyzing Ether’s chart against Bitcoin reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between bulls and bears. The bulls are defending the support line, while the bears are strongly defending the resistance line. Both moving averages are sloping down, and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the oversold zone, suggesting that bears are in control. The ETH/BTC pair could drop to the support line, where buyers are expected to step in. If the price rebounds off the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it may extend its stay inside the triangle. A breakout above or below the triangle could signal the next trending move, with a rally above the triangle potentially targeting 0.18 BTC, surpassing the current all-time high of 0.15 BTC.
On the daily chart, the ETH/BTC pair has been trading within a descending channel for several months, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. A minor positive for bulls is that the RSI has shown a positive divergence, and the 20-day exponential moving average (0.04 BTC) has started to flatten out, suggesting reduced selling pressure. A break and close above the 50-day simple moving average (0.04 BTC) could signal a move toward the downtrend line, indicating a potential trend change. However, this positive outlook will be invalidated if the price continues to decline and breaks below 0.038 BTC, which could push the pair to the channel’s support line.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
