Ethereum still possesses a significant first-mover advantage in the decentralised space, but whether it can maintain its core value requires finding a new balance between L2 development and other narrative waves. This article is based on a long tweet by BTC_chopsticks, organised, translated and written by PANews. (Background: Ethereum loyal OGs fire back: Five reasons Solana is unlikely to become the world's mainstream blockchain) (Supplementary background: Viewpoint: What exactly has caused Ethereum (ETH) to lose its vitality?) Ethereum was once regarded as the 'blue-chip asset' of the crypto market, with common belief that its price would reach new highs in the future, even breaking the $10,000 mark. However, since 2022, ETH's performance has been lacklustre. Does this indicate challenges for Vitalik and Ethereum's future? Let's delve into the reasons behind it. 1. The gap between expectation and reality Over the past two years, significant upgrades to Ethereum filled people with hope for its future, especially with the 'deflationary' effect on ETH supply. However, the actual market performance has been surprising. Despite a series of scaling and upgrades, ETH's market performance has been relatively poor, even being significantly surpassed by BTC and other tokens (such as Solana). 2. The failure of the ETH ETF Many expected the launch of the ETH ETF would drive up ETH prices, but the result was a huge disappointment. In contrast to the bullish trend seen at the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, the ETH ETF saw capital outflows after its listing, partly due to the selling pressure from Grayscale's legacy products. 3. The 'unexpected' impact of upgrades The Ethereum Merge and EIP-1559 successfully reduced the issuance of ETH, but the latest Dencun upgrade, while lowering the cost of writing data to the main chain, inadvertently reduced ETH's revenue sources, unexpectedly lowering the potential for the token's appreciation. 4. Vitalik's ETH sell-off raises concerns Ethereum founder Vitalik recently sold some of his ETH to support development. Although the amount sold was relatively small, it generated negative sentiment in the market. Some investors believe this might indicate a lack of confidence in ETH from Vitalik, despite him repeatedly stating that ETH's price is not a priority for him. 5. Absence in emerging trends Many of the emerging trends in the market — such as AI, RWA (real-world assets) and memecoins — have largely not chosen Ethereum as the primary platform. Many emerging AI projects (like Fetch, TAO) and RWA projects have opted for more suitable independent networks and underlying architectures, while in the memecoin sector, Solana's performance is evidently more impressive. This means that while Ethereum opened the door to decentralisation, other networks are becoming the leaders of the latest narratives. 6. The future value fate of ETH Currently, ETH is still a cornerstone of the decentralised finance (DeFi) ecosystem, accounting for over 55% of the total locked value. However, with the popularisation of L2 scaling solutions, the future of Ethereum may face a dilemma of 'ecological prosperity but token value not realised', similar to the $ATOM coin in the Cosmos ecosystem. Personal outlook Although I once firmly believed ETH's price would reach $10,000, I have become more cautious about this target. ETH still occupies 30% of my investment portfolio, but in the next bull market, I may gradually sell part of my assets, holding the remainder for long-term observation of its future performance. Conclusion: The network utility and ecological status of ETH remain solid, but recent performance has raised concerns in the market. Although ETH is still a leader in the industry, if it fails to adapt to emerging trends, it may gradually lose some of its dominant position. Ethereum still possesses a significant first-mover advantage in the decentralised space, but whether it can maintain its core value requires finding a new balance between L2 development and other narrative waves.

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