Recently, BTC has once again broken the $70,000 barrier, and the market's greed index has reached 80 again, while Meme coins often sound the charge in every bull market; for example, $GOAT saw its price surge over 10,000 times within 5 days. Through analysis of the trading data of the current market's TOP 25 Meme coins, we found several market characteristics and evolving trends worth noting.
Meme Market Characteristics
Address Layering
In terms of the number of holders, SHIB, DOG, DOGE, MEME, and DEGEN all have over 800,000 addresses, with SHIB leading with 1.51 million addresses, approximately 400,000 addresses higher than the second-place DOG. At the same time, these projects also occupy a relatively high trading volume in the overall market.
The number of holding addresses for BONK and BRETT exceeds 700,000, while the holding addresses for PEPE and WIF are 320,000 and 180,000, respectively. However, it is worth noting that the 30-day growth in holding addresses for these two projects is 3.02% and 4.86%, surpassing all previously mentioned Meme coins with the highest number of holders.
It is worth noting that according to bitsCrunch data, MEW and MIGGLES are the only remaining Meme coins with over 100,000 holding addresses, while MIGGLES has seen a 26.55% growth in the last 30 days. Tokens like HIGHER, FLOKI, POPCAT, MOCHI, PONKE, MOODENG, and MYRO constitute projects within the 50,000-100,000 holding address range, but liquidity is relatively limited.
Liquidity Layering
The price of Meme coins shows a strong correlation with societal hot events. According to the buy-sell comparison index, TRUMP's index is 1.66, with a price increase of 15.9%. This is highly correlated with the recent U.S. political election events.
SHIB and WIF had the highest trading volume in the past 7 days, at \(70.2 billion\) and 67.3 billion, respectively, topping the list, far exceeding the third and fourth places. Comparing trading volume and price fluctuations reveals that projects with high trading volume (like SHIB and DOGE) have relatively mild price fluctuations, while projects with lower trading volume often exhibit greater volatility.
Thus, it can be seen that high-market-value Meme coins are gradually gaining the attributes of 'value storage,' with investors showing a stronger tendency to hold them. Many investors adopt a 'buy low' strategy, and the head effect will further strengthen. In contrast, low-market-value Meme coins play more of a speculative tool role, with stronger short-term speculation. Liquidity layering will become more pronounced, potentially exacerbating market polarization.
The ratio of address and price changes reflects the immediate changes in liquidity. According to bitsCrunch data, HIGHER and MOODENG have seen short-term liquidity increases of 2.32% and 1.98%, respectively. This abnormal influx of liquidity often indicates potential price fluctuations.
In contrast, TURBO and PONKE experienced liquidity outflows of -0.31% and -0.13%, respectively. This slow but continuous liquidity outflow may suggest a gradual weakening of market confidence.
For investors, this means a more cautious assessment of the liquidity risk of projects rather than just focusing on price fluctuations. In this rapidly evolving market, the importance of risk management may outweigh the pursuit of profits.
Ecosystem Analysis Framework
The Meme Tool Ecosystem Panorama presents the five core sectors of the entire industry: research tools, security checks, tracking systems, trading platforms, and issuance platforms.
Transaction Security Data Analysis
From the current market data, authenticity verification and contract security assessment have become the primary steps in investment decision-making. The rampant manipulation of the Meme coin trading market often hides two possibilities: first, the project party attempts to create trading activity to rise on the DEX Screener trend list; second, bots are manipulating the market. Therefore, it is essential to identify genuine community interactions before trading.
Through contract analysis of the holding addresses of Meme coin projects, several risk issues have been identified: one is excessive centralization of permissions, second is the lack of liquidity locking, and third is significant overlap of holding addresses.
Specifically, a core address frequently interacts with multiple dispersed addresses. This pattern is particularly common in some emerging projects with abnormal 24-hour gains, often indicating the risk of centralized control. Furthermore, it is necessary to monitor whether there are complex financial interactions between multiple large holding addresses, which may be due to a large speculative group operating behind the scenes.
Therefore, for newcomers to Meme coins, it is essential to focus on observing the degree of dispersed holdings, which is usually more common in mature projects like SHIB or PEPE. However, it is worth noting that even in such projects, their top 100 addresses still control the majority of the supply.
Social Influence Analysis
Generally speaking, a successful Meme coin project requires endorsements from at least 3-5 KOLs with over 100,000 followers on average. However, this metric is changing.
Currently, high follower counts are no longer a decisive factor. For example, HIGHER, although only supported by medium-sized KOLs, has shown stronger upward capacity. This reflects that the market is transitioning away from KOL dependence. The temporal distribution of KOL endorsements significantly impacts project trends. Projects that receive multiple KOL endorsements concentrated in a short period often perform worse than those with endorsements spread over different periods.
Key Indicator System
Based on statistical analysis of successful cases, we summarize the following key indicator system:
Trading Volume Indicator: A robust project should achieve organic trading volume (excluding bot trading) of $500-$1,000 within the first hour of launch. This figure is below the industry-accepted threshold of $1,000-$2,000, but we find that a lower initial threshold actually benefits the project's ongoing development.
Market Capitalization Threshold: $100,000 is a critical psychological barrier. Data shows that 87% of successful projects start to gain substantial growth after breaking this market cap. However, it is worth noting that this threshold varies across different sectors. For example, Meme coins themed around AI typically require a higher starting market cap.
Supply Distribution: The ratio of holdings by the founding team is an important indicator. Statistics show that when the founding team's holdings are below 5%, the project's survival rate significantly increases. This may be because lower team holdings reduce the risk of sell pressure and increase community confidence.
Risk Warning Mechanism
First, basic indicator monitoring. Real-time tracking of trading volume, holding distribution, price fluctuations, and other basic data, setting thresholds for abnormal fluctuation alerts.
Second, on-chain behavior analysis. Monitor large address movements, especially interactions with known risk addresses. At the same time, track changes in liquidity pools to warn of potential sell-off behaviors. Establish a dynamic stop-loss system, setting different stop-loss ratios based on the project's different development stages.
Third, social signal monitoring, establishing a KOL database, and identifying potential market manipulation signals. Pay special attention to abnormal activity on social media, look for opportunities on new public chains, and diversify investment portfolios.
Based on extensive data and market observations, we hope to provide investors entering the Meme market with a comprehensive market overview and systematic analysis framework. However, it is important to emphasize that this article does not constitute investment advice; any framework needs constant adjustment and improvement according to market changes. As Meme is a high-risk, high-reward market model, it is essential to focus on risk monitoring before trading.
If you want to seize the current bull market, learning on the fly will definitely be too late; it's best to have someone guide you quickly.
I'm Lao Li, welcome to communicate!
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