Today, the crypto market has seen a widespread bullish trend, with Bitcoin breaking through $70,000, reaching a high of $71,500, and Ethereum also rising to $2,600.
Among altcoins, DOGE and SHIB have risen the most, climbing over 10%. This is mainly because Musk released an image featuring elements of Dogecoin's Shiba Inu.
What is driving the rise of Bitcoin?
This rise is mainly due to expectations that Trump may win and the stimulus from the US stock earnings season.
Some smart money may have known something in advance and started to jump the gun.
This year, the crypto space has only just realized the connection between the US election and the Bitcoin cycle.
Trump unexpectedly displays a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin.
He not only attended the Bitcoin conference to give a speech but also launched his own DeFi product, claiming to make 'Bitcoin a strategic reserve for the US.'
All of this has made the market full of expectations for Trump's potential victory. So if Trump comes to power, it would be a long-term positive for the crypto space.
Although on Polymarket, funding shows Trump leading significantly, from the public polls, Trump and Harris have roughly equal chances.
As long as the expectations for Trump's victory before the election are not broken, the trends of improving market sentiment and liquidity will continue. The market will decide its next direction based on the results of the election.
If Trump is elected, Bitcoin is likely to surge to between $90,000 and $100,000.
If Harris is elected, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate around $80,000.
Next, let's take a look at some noteworthy news and data:
1. DWF Labs co-founder states: The bull market cycle began in October.
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev posted on social media platform X: 'By October, we have entered the first month of the bull market cycle.'
Although the market is still a bit unstable, the overall trend is positive.
He believes that the current market trends include: meme coins, yield-bearing assets, artificial intelligence (AI), and RWA (real-world assets).
Additionally, Arthur Hayes mentioned that China's economic stimulus measures could lead to a surge in Bitcoin, similar to the scenario in 2015 when Bitcoin's price increased fivefold.
This indicates that under the backdrop of the US election and global monetary easing, market liquidity and investor confidence are gradually recovering.
What we need to do now is to position ourselves with quality assets, maintain patience, and wait for sector rotations to rise.
2. Deribit CEO states: The Bitcoin call options expiring on November 8 are twice as many as the put options.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that many traders are preparing for a Bitcoin rise post the November 5 US election.
He pointed out that the number of Bitcoin call options expiring on November 8 is twice that of put options, which is the first option to expire after the election.
Strijers said: 'These options expiring on November 8 have a total value of open contracts exceeding $2 billion, with the main strike prices being $70,000, $75,000, and $80,000.'
This means that the market generally expects Bitcoin to hit $80,000 after the election.
3. Vitalik states: No ETH was sold in the past month, and the foundation sells tokens for operations.
Vitalik said on social media that he personally has neither sold ETH in the past month nor reduced his holdings.
As for the Ethereum Foundation selling ETH, that was to cover network operating costs, and he hopes everyone can understand this.
He also mentioned that Ethereum no longer loses 5 million ETH annually due to proof of work.
Ethereum network fees are also very low, and transactions can be completed within 30 seconds, rather than the previous 1 to 30 minutes (thanks to the implementation of EIP-1559).
Since 2016, Ethereum has never gone offline due to DoS attacks or consensus failures, with various security measures (including in-house development and grants) preventing many financial losses.
Although there has been a lot of FUD sentiment around Ethereum recently, I believe Ethereum is still the safest public chain at the moment, bar none.
Moreover, with the support of spot ETFs, ETH is unlikely to cool down. As liquidity increases, the demand for ETH will also rise, and it is likely to go up again.
4. a16z crypto report shows: The number of active addresses and usage rates for cryptocurrencies have reached historical highs.
a16z crypto recently released a research report indicating that this year, the number of active addresses and usage rates for cryptocurrencies reached an all-time high.
As of September, approximately 617 million people globally hold cryptocurrencies, with 60 million monthly active users.
It is expected that by 2024, the number of monthly active addresses will exceed 220 million.
Among them, Base ranks first in the Ethereum EVM chain with 22 million addresses, while Solana dominates the non-EVM chain with over 100 million addresses.
This year, the number of mobile wallet users is also the highest ever, with US users accounting for 12% of the global total.
Overall, with Bitcoin breaking through to $71,000, those who chased high at $70,000 have all been relieved. It can be said that Bitcoin has not let anyone down.
Moreover, 71% of Bitcoin holders have held for over a year, indicating that there are more long-term holders in the market now. The market always rewards those who hold long-term 'diamond hands'.
Next, we can focus on the earnings reports from MSTR and COIN, as well as the results of the US election.
In terms of operational strategy, hold positions in spot markets and expect Bitcoin to likely break $80,000 by year-end.
If Bitcoin breaks $73,000, another spot grid can be opened.
The two spot grid orders we previously opened have already started to take profits, averaging a 7% gain over the month.
There is still one position that hasn't been closed for profit. If Bitcoin breaks 73,000, the expected return could reach 10%.
