Daily Market Analysis (10.28)

Summary:

1. The Nikkei opened lower and then rose, while the Nasdaq surged before the market opened. Does this mean we should start a bull market right now? Not necessarily.

2. The issuance of over 400 billion USD in treasury bonds in the next two days remains a hidden risk.

3. There are a large number of spot sell orders and contract shorts above 70000 for Bitcoin and 2800 for Ethereum. The reason the main force fell back at 69500/2770 is that they couldn't digest everything at once and needed to clear out high-leverage longs first.

4. Clearing high-leverage longs to gain liquidity is not an issue in itself, but after clearing the high-leverage longs, if they attempt to push higher again (and the Nasdaq breaks its high on Friday), it still hasn't broken 69500, indicating hidden risks.

5. The second drop also didn't break 65200, and the greed index is too high, with prices too elevated, which means retail investors are heavily going long. The main force hasn’t gained enough liquidity.

6. The current game is essentially between the main force and retail investors. Don’t FOMO; proceed with caution. There are a lot of significant events over the next few days. Our long positions from 59333 to 67000 are still not enough. No one can catch the entire ride; given the current situation, the cost-effectiveness of going short above 69000 is far greater than going long now.

7. Regarding Ethereum's triple bottom.

8. If the position at 65200 does not break, it will be hard to see particularly high positions. Even if going long, at most we can only see around 71000, and once it gets there, it must involve going short. After the Nasdaq broke its ATH, although there’s no pressure above, it’s still necessary to use short-term pullbacks to clean out retail investors.

Operationally:

1. Be cautious with short-term trades, making advance layouts for short positions at $BTC 71000, $ETH 2640, $SOL 182, which are currently ultimate short positions.

2. Before the market reaches these positions, cautiously trade based on moving averages and trend lines. The left-side 4H level shorts can be held until Bitcoin reaches 64500/Ethereum 2250/SOL 145, but long positions should be handled with more caution.

3. After Bitcoin hit 69500 and fell back to 65200, it has already consumed a considerable amount of chips at a low position. Then, based on the Nasdaq breaking its high, it still failed to push above 70000, which is very telling. The subsequent rapid decline also did not break the previous low of 65200. In this case, forcing it back above 70000 puts significant pressure on the main force. To reach above 73800, there’s still time in November and December; it doesn't have to be completed in October.