1. Stay sensitive to super special new narratives. What is super special? This is subjective, and the basis for judgment is a comprehensive and strong understanding of Circle B. Looking back at history, I have basically never missed any exceptionally strong narratives — I have missed quite a few strong projects, which is normal. I generally do not engage with any project parties, only stepping in on the secondary market. This is also the style of my idol Duan Yongping. The benefit of this approach is greater freedom and no constraints. Perhaps this is something to keep an eye on regarding what I focus on or don’t focus on. One thing I am quite confident about is that I will continue to grow stronger, just like in the past. I still hope that every year I can grow to a level that the previous year could not have imagined.
2. If you can’t understand whether this narrative is as impressive as they say, what should you do? Should you get on board? How much should you invest? It’s quite simple: my investment system has a rule of 'don’t invest if you don’t understand' — this is straightforward, as wanting to invest without understanding, or even wanting to heavily invest, is nothing more than a lack of confidence in seizing the next opportunity. What to do without confidence? Learn, practice, wait! If you are just eager to take a gamble, that’s reasonable, but it may not be right. If you understand, then directly move on to how to buy and how much to buy; let’s skip that for today as we have discussed it a lot in the past. What if you don’t understand?
3. If you don’t understand and others have said a lot, you have a few choices: The first choice: Decide to join. Follow the logic of not understanding and proceed. What to do? I previously mentioned a system of 'communication + valuation,' let’s review it today, applicable to any target at any time. Assuming that a lot of foolish money in the market is searching for 'the next target,' then the valuation will be a bit higher. For example, currently, everyone is looking for alternatives to AI memes and goats — in the past, various inscriptions that came out after Ordi were like this. In this context, proceed with valuation as follows: If some Chinese KOLs are shouting, without any top influencers participating, there is something special about it, such as being particularly fair, and the issuance method is also particularly unique, this first cap is generally at a market value of 50 million. So if you see it at 2 million or 5 million, you can invest a little. If foreign investors are fomo-ing and mid-tier Chinese KOLs are also shouting, then the market cap first cap might be a bit higher, like 75 million. If foreign investors are fomo-ing and there are some top influencers (consider only the traffic within Circle B, don’t pay attention to web2 fan counts, they are useless) participating, then the first cap can look at 100 million. Here the 'first cap' refers to assuming it’s not a very good target (worst-case scenario), at this position or prior, you should consider recovering the cost and some profit (as for whether to keep a base position, my suggestion is generally to keep 10% just in case you misjudged and it becomes a big winner, like Neiro; if it doesn’t go on BNB, it’s likely to rise to several tens of millions and then drop back, it will only be the first scenario mentioned above, where Chinese KOLs shout, a few tens of millions is the ceiling. But the unexpected could be if it goes on BNB, then that would increase to 500 million — because memes on BNB reaching hundreds of millions is reasonable, and the foolish money on BNB leads globally). Above all, there is fundamentally no possibility of heavy investment — if you don’t understand or simply can’t understand, then don’t invest heavily; making any profit is already quite good. Is Circle B VC B of no value, while Meme B holds great value? We embrace the bubble, enjoy the bubble, but essentially the consensus of fools is still a consensus, don’t get too deep into the play — memes strictly adhere to the rules of the betting game, calculating how much new capital is entering the casino game. Writing this makes me somewhat ashamed — in this game, the higher the gambling skill, the more distant one may be from investing, but that’s okay; before making 100 million, this gambling skill is meaningful, and that’s the greatest value in Circle B. This second point is so important that once you understand it, you won’t miss anything and won’t end up participating in someone else’s 1 million investment at 50 million, being brainwashed into trying to push for 1 billion or even 10 billion — even if the unexpected happens, the preciousness of the principal remains important compared to the discomfort of missing out. This second point, deciding to join, has a few key conditions to consider: get in early, exit decisively, and keep a little base position. The second choice: Decide not to play. This should be based on your funds and state, don’t be afraid of missing opportunities. Finally, the more popular memes on SOL become, even if you can’t catch them, holding SOL kind of tokens is also good — there is a trick here: on major platforms like SOL, if you feel this cycle will be well-played and think there will be opportunities to hit above 300, that’s fine. In terms of operations, I think you can buy in batches and go against human nature, buying more as it drops, say at 120 and 90. When it rises quickly to 300, then just sell without buying anymore.
