The probability of Trump (Donald Trump) winning, as predicted on the Polymarket market, has surpassed opponent Kamala Harris since 10/5 and has shown a continuous upward trend, reaching a winning rate of 64.2% by 10/24. Bitcoin has risen from 61K on 10/5 but has faced a barrier at the 70K level that it has been unable to break through, causing the crypto community to gradually lose patience. What kind of Trump trade is the market currently favoring?
The US dollar strengthens, and US Treasury yields rise.
Recently, US Treasury yields and the dollar have been strengthening in tandem. Standard Chartered stated that this month's increase in the dollar is mainly due to the market betting on the increased probability of Trump winning the US presidential election, which has driven up the dollar, with estimates showing that sixty percent of this rise is related to the expectation of Trump's election.
Trump advocates for high tariffs on imported goods, which could reignite inflation and push up interest rates, while other policy proposals, such as tax cuts and deregulation, aim to stimulate economic growth and enhance corporate profitability, which would also increase market demand for the dollar.
The US dollar index rose by 1.76% during this period, while the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds increased by 7.04%.
Gold frequently sets new historical highs.
Gold has frequently set new historical highs this year due to geopolitical risks, the start of the US rate cut cycle, and the uncertainty of the US elections, having risen over thirty percent this year. However, it seems not directly related to the Trump trade.
Has Bitcoin strengthened by riding the Trump trade train?
And do Trump’s more crypto-friendly policies allow Bitcoin to ride this wave of Trump trades?
Bitcoin has also risen from 61K on 10/5 but has faced a barrier at the 70K level that it has been unable to break through. While institutions continue to predict that Trump's election will be more favorable for cryptocurrency regulation, providing strong upward momentum for Bitcoin, the market seems to have yet to feel this optimistic atmosphere. Chain News has also compiled various forecasts for Bitcoin prices after Trump's potential election as follows:
Standard Chartered: 200,000
Bernstein: 90,000
Bitwise: 250,000 (not considering the election)
This article discusses the increased probability of Trump winning and what is trending in the market. Does Bitcoin count as a Trump trade? Originally appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
