BTC Future Trend Prediction
A couple of days ago, I posted a show-off post, and unexpectedly got over 10,000 views and gained dozens of followers. I'm feeling quite good today, so I've organized some of my thoughts for everyone's entertainment.
Review of the current BTC bull market and future trend prediction:
1. If we start counting from October 15, 2023, when BTC crossed the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart, until the high point on March 14:
1) From October 15 to March 14, it lasted 151 days, about 5 months.
2) From the high point on March 14 to the low point on August 5, it lasted 144 days, with an adjustment of about 5 months.
3) Calculation from the high point on March 14 to the low point on August 5: March 14 high - (March 14 high - October 15 opening) * 50% = 73811.4 - (73811.4 - 26863.4) * 50% = 50358.9, which is not far off from the lowest point of 48888 on August 5.
Summary: This bull market cycle is about 5 months, and I found the 50% rule quite practical.
Future trend prediction:
1. If the daily line crosses the middle Bollinger Band on August 21, the market will likely continue for about 5 months until mid-January.
2. Increase in amplitude: Last October to March this year, there was a 2.75 times increase. Based on the minimum point of 49,000 on August 5, this wave will likely reach around 134,000.
3. Adjustment amplitude: 134 - (134 - 49) * 50% = 91,000.
4. Adjustment time: 5 months (adjusting from mid-January to June next year)
5. Big bull next year: Starting around June until December, approximately 6 months, amplitude: predicting 250,000+ (this cycle's peak = closing price on halving day * 4)
6. Within the 5-month cycle, there will be sideways and downward adjustments, with a cycle of about 45-60 days. Therefore, if the mid-band is confirmed on August 21, we should pay attention around mid-October.
