$BTC
Personal trading plan for today: open short at 71860, stop loss at 72300, and take profit at half of 70k. Profit-loss ratio is about 4

An article about position management written in March for your reference #仓位管理 #BTC走势分析 #PEPE创历史新高 #WIF

Position management 2024.3.17

Everyone will do the one-sided trend market, and everyone is making money lying down. The difference is how much you make. Making money in this market is like taking the elevator upstairs. Whether you move or not, you are going up. In the volatile market, in the falling market, there is no wind. Whether the pig can still fly depends on the position management. Good position management can allow us to wait until the next take-off. Poor position management can only lose our chips again and again in this volatile market, and the principal is getting less and less. When the wind blows, we can only sigh that I have also bought xx yuan of xx

The following is my own position management, with 1 100,000 yuan as an example, it may not be suitable for everyone, for reference only

In 10w, I will choose 40% of the position for deterministic Beta returns, and this part of the position is for long-term holding. This part of the position is just like what Mr. Kuang did in the previous article, directly hiding the amount and retracement, "watch it every day, and can't hold any increase in spot prices." This part of the position is held when the bull market appears extremely Fomo sentiment, such as the last round of 10 billion zoo, and the Fomo of more than ten times a day, and people outside the market can't hold back when they can't hold back. Clear the position, for example, Mr. Cai holds Stx, and the wizard buys Ckb, which is to buy Btc ecosystem B eta effect

20% of the positions will choose tracks with airdrop effects, such as modularization. After buying, they will eat the passive currency price increase on the one hand, and the airdrop share on the other hand

The remaining 20% ​​will be used as spot mobile positions, and 20% will be used as contract mobile positions. After the contract position makes money, it will be transferred to the spot immediately. After losing money, it will take a break for 1-2 days to re-order. If all the losses are lost, wait for the spot part of the profit to make up for the contract position, instead of selling the spot to continue to hold the contract

For mobile positions, my approach is,
The spot mobile position has a longer holding time, and only looks at the daily line to enter the market. When the increase exceeds 10%, it will be judged according to the K-line situation Continue to hold or sell to cash in, but when it exceeds 10%, you must stop loss in place to prevent being trapped and losing opportunity costs. Here are two examples. For example, PEPE. After PEPE's weekly line broke through, it actually fell by -14% on February 29. Many spot parties or long contracts will be washed away here, but looking at the trading volume, this is a large-volume breakthrough of the weekly line. After the large-scale trend suppression, it is normal for early profit-taking or being trapped to rush to sell. In fact, this decline looks like -14%, but judging from the trading volume of the previous K line, it is completely a K line with no volume.
For example, Sei
Sei has a continuous cross shadow when it rushed to the trend line 1.14 after reaching a new high on the daily line. In the previous period, it had been continuously increasing in volume when it was pulled to the trend line. It is time to leave when the volume increases in advance to the trend line and the cross shadow continues. The attached picture is a screenshot of the chat in the group at that time

For PEPE, I will choose to stop loss in place or even a small loss to gamble for a larger profit space, and for Sei, I will decisively take a dozen points to pocket and use the compound interest money to gamble the power of the trend

For the flexible position of the contract, in the volatile market, I will repeatedly play in the wild to make short-term profits, and leave after taking 3-5 points, without pattern, even if there is a high probability that it will continue to rise in the future, maintain trading discipline

Earn money in the volatile market The profit cushion taken is the wear and tear of trend trading. The trend does not come out at once. It requires us to use positions to feel it over and over again. Therefore, trend trading wears a lot. If there is no profit cushion, the mentality will be greatly affected. For example, this section of Jup. There were four false breakouts at the daily level, and there were more false fallbacks at the small level. If you did not do the previous four times, then you are likely to miss the fifth real breakthrough. For example, Ltc. After this breakthrough, not only did the daily level repeatedly break through falsely, but it also consolidated for more than a week. When it rose by 18% in subsequent volume, it deceived a lot of longs. Now there is a trend of continuing to fall back to the trend line. Trend trading does not mean that you wait for it to rise after buying, nor does it mean that you regret why you did not buy it when you saw PEPE Doge rise several times. For most people, they will sell it if they buy it. If you do contracts, it is strongly recommended to accumulate profit cushions in the short term before going to the pattern and then gambling on the trend. It is very helpful for the mentality of holding positions.

The push on May 1st can be used as a reference for review #eth #bnb

ETH:

The current ETH price is 2879. At this position, Ethereum's bullish resistance is much stronger than Bitcoin's bullish resistance at 57k. After all, Ethereum has fallen a lot before, but it is difficult for Ethereum to have the ability to rise independently. The most likely trend is that it will be brought out by a long lower shadow in the subsequent Bitcoin decline. I didn't sell the bottom at 2888 before, accounting for about 20%. I bought 50% in batches at 2488-2588 below

BNB:
For financial management partners, BNB should be the best choice
BN B has not reached the previously planned 460-480 range. Compared with ETH and BTC, BNB is indeed a highly controlled thing. It has only fallen by 8% this week, compared with ETH's 11% and BTC's 9%.

It is expected that it will take one to two weeks for BNB to reach the spot point. The specific point where I placed an order is 478 to buy 50%

Altcoin:
In fact, the altcoin has not followed the decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the market share of Bitcoin is also declining, which is very conducive to the outbreak of the altcoin season in the later period. For those who want to make the first pot of gold with small funds, you can pay attention to the push in the ban group later.

The push on May 1st can be used as a reference for review #BTC

I will briefly analyze the market outside, and will continue to update this document with details after returning to China
This time, I will analyze BTC ETH and BNB and the alt market plan
Sol spot has been fully occupied and will not be analyzed for the time being
The spot points we talked about a few days ago, Bitcoin 57k, BNB460-480, ETH Around 2800, I didn't expect it to be so soon
Plans are dead, people are alive, and the latest plan is the standard

First of all, we don't use news as the basis for rise and fall. War, Cz sentencing, dot plots and other news are not what we can control or touch. Friends who like to read news can think about it. Is the news that a retail investor knows still news? The only thing we can rely on is K-line and data

BTC:
According to the level, from large to small, let's talk about the worst case first, so that everyone can do a good job of spot position management, that is, when BTC falls to 46k, we have money to cover the position. Whether it is batch orders or OTC cash flow batches, do a good job of position management. No one can buy the bottom at once. Don't close your eyes and calculate first How much money do you have to invest in the risk market? If the price continues to fall in the future, how much cash flow can be invested? The key point is that this method is only suitable for Bitcoin.

The current price of BTC is 57329, which has reached the daily Ma120 position. This is the last line of defense for bulls, but there is no sign of a rapid V-turn or rebound. Therefore, be prepared for all the bottom-picking bulls to be buried. In addition to the 57888 spot orders that have been placed very early, I have placed two orders in batches at 51888-52888 below. If you want to bury this batch of bulls, there is a high probability that a long lower shadow will appear between 46-51k.

No one can predict whether the Ma120 position is the bottom. We can only buy and watch. My position at 57888 is about 20% of the total Bitcoin position. 51888-52888 has placed 40%, and 46888 has placed the remaining 40%.

5.21 #BTC
Don't go short today. It's hard to fall today on the BE daily line. When the market stabilizes, participate in the altcoin longs. Don't go short, follow the market
It's too fast. There is a high probability that it will be blocked and fall back. It's still unknown how the altcoin will react. From 5.17 to 5.20, the 4h line was consolidated near 67k, which is what the document said. Use time to exchange space for the impact of 71k during the high-level consolidation. But now, it's too fast. It's better to have a fall in the morning to give the altcoin some space. The ideal scenario is to fall in the morning and go sideways in the afternoon. The altcoin will take over the performance
I personally will pay attention to Metis ENA in the altcoin
BTC's trend in the next morning will be critical. If it is blocked near 72k in the morning and falls back to 70k and stabilizes again, the altcoin will have a chance, but if BTC has a short-term rapid pull-up, the altcoin will have little chance if it pulls up very quickly, because the altcoin has often followed the decline but not the rise since this round

5.19 #Trb #Floki #FTM etc.
Trb
The daily level is clearer. After breaking through the range, it fell back again and continued to rise. Now the 1-hour level moving average has begun to flatten. It is worth waiting for the long signal on the right side based on the hourly K. At present, this wave of decline has not stabilized, but it is worth waiting to participate in the long position

Floki
Floki Today's daily line has gone bad. If you want to go long, place an order near 0.1786-0.181 and wait for a pin. Wait for the hourly K in the red circle on the right to stabilize near the trend line

Ftm
In a word, this target is not recommended for contracts. . . The trend of Feitianmao contract is sometimes more disgusting than TRB. Today's k on the daily line has already shown some peak signals. Refer to the daily k on April 10. Whether it has peaked depends on tomorrow's closing.

Ray
Similar to Sol, Ray is even weaker. It has fallen below the previous low of 1.795. It is more appropriate to open a short position after a small rebound. Don't go long on it.

Zeta
Refer to the daily line trend on May 6, 1.5 and 1.7. Open a short position at 1.7, stand firm and stop loss, open a long position near 1.5, and stop loss if it falls below 1.48.

Tia
Since March, it has been suppressed at the daily level. The hourly level has even fallen sharply below ma120. If you want to go long, place an order near 8.2.

Ton
I will open a short position after it falls below 6.35, and the stop loss is 6.6.

Fet
The opportunity is next week or the next week, near 2.03. The daily level has recently directly broken through The probability of breaking the triangle is not high, and the main focus is on connecting to the lower edge of the range

Wld
As of now, the daily K line is very weak, and there is even a possibility of directly breaking the daily trend in the past few days. If you want to participate in the long position, you can enter the market at the current price of 4.7, stop loss at 4.5, and take profit near 6. Short positions are not cost-effective for the time being

The recent cottage market is mainly short-term pull-up and then shock shipment or short-term pull-down. It is much more difficult to do cottage futures than BTC futures. It is recommended to only do BTC futures. Don’t be greedy for high returns to do cottage. The market share of BTC here is still rising. It is not a good time to do cottage. Reduce the frequency of opening orders and only do those with sufficient safety margins. Even if you only do one order a week and only do 10% of each order, it is much better than opening orders every day. In the current volatile market, it is best to reduce profit expectations, low leverage, and carry orders appropriately

I personally currently participate in BTC longs and cottage shorts

#BTC #ETH
Analysis of the 5.19 day horse cannon

BTC weekly line still maintains a strong bullish trend, with the first target near 71k, and the peak signal appears periodically at the daily level, especially in the hourly line, it is blocked near the previous pressure level of 67k and falls back. Whether it stabilizes near 63.5k below determines whether it will bottom out again or stabilize near 63.5k and continue to hit 71k. Suggestion: Wait for the moving average to stick together again after the decline, and then participate in the long position such as the position in the red circle, focusing on the two positions of 67k and 63.5k. For example, after pulling back to 67k again, it will go sideways at a high level, and use time to exchange for the moving average to pull up and then start rising again, or fall back to 63.5k and stabilize and use space to wait for the moving average to return

ETH is obviously weaker than BTC, and the exchange rate has not returned to the range and started to fall again. Here, whether the exchange rate can stabilize near 0.045 is crucial. If not, there is still a lot of room for decline below. After ETH strongly broke through the range on May 17, we are now focusing on two key positions, 3030 and 2950-2968. One is the retracement of the upward trend, and the other is the retracement of the breakthrough range. Only these two positions are worth going long, while shorting will wait for the right side signal of the specific K-line, such as the hourly K-line at 7 o'clock in the evening of May 18.

#Cel #Saga #Ordi #W
Note that this is the analysis on May 19

Cel
Thanks to the news of destruction, Cel has risen nearly 7 times since the beginning of May to its highest point. Cel is extremely weak in the hourly K. The potential rebound opportunity is around 0.5-0.52. 0.5-0.52 is the previous shock consolidation range, and it is also near the ma30 of the daily K. This is the only range worth paying attention to. According to the trend, the rebound will not last long. The value of participating in this target is not very large, and both long and short positions are relatively useless.

Saga
There is no need to participate in the short term. If you want to do it, wait until the sideways consolidation, and the 1h and 4h moving averages begin to flatten. It is still continuing. Suppressed by the 30-day moving average, a useless target

Ordi
Since breaking the daily rising trend, Ordi touched the rising trend line on April 8 and then began to fall sharply. However, it has recently started to go sideways after rising on the daily level. If it is strong, it will break through 43-44 in the next two days and start to rise on the daily level. If it is weak, it will most likely fall back to around 38. This target is worth paying attention to

W
W has recently returned to the low sideways range near 0.53. Pay attention to whether it will hit 0.57 in the hourly K. If it does, you can go short and stop loss after standing back on the trend line. When the market is rising, W is so weak, so you need to worry. Once the market pulls back, there is a possibility that W will fall below 0.53 and start a new low. This kind of break will often be a 10-20% negative line. Summary: You can go short when it hits the upper edge of the trend line, and you can go long when it returns to around 0.5-53. The stop loss for going long is 0.45, but I will not participate in the long position myself, I will only wait for W's short opportunity