Before the US election, the market once again speculated and priced in a rate cut, but if Powell follows his usual style, the most likely thing is to do nothing and pause until the new king is crowned.

At that time, the curve will be steep, the short end will be 3-4%, and the liquidity will be sufficient, which will be considered a real bull market. There is no obvious trend before the election. If you have the energy, you can range trade, and if you don’t have time, you can carry.

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#山寨季何时到来？ #美联储何时降息？ #美国6月CPI大幅降温

US retail sales were slightly lower than expected, which also indirectly shows that the non-agricultural data is not overheated, but has a stagflation trend, which can barely be regarded as a basis for interest rate cuts

The euro weakened before the French election. If the euro continues to decline and Europe cannot withstand the interest rate cuts, the world will gradually enter a loose cycle

This round of plunges chooses to increase positions in small amounts, and spot hard bears

Prosperity brings false crowds, and dusk witnesses true believers

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The market fluctuated downward. It is worth noting that the BTC transaction fee and miner rewards decreased, which further confirmed that the selling pressure came from miners and profit-taking. This may be an early signal of weakening consensus.

Ethereum L2 and other competing public chains led the decline. People are impetuous, and it is inevitable that there are various acrobatic mechanisms to attract attention. It is necessary to see the essence through the phenomenon. The BTC consensus has cooled down, and the problem of opaque governance of the ERC chain has gradually been exposed, but most people do not read these news.

It can be said that 90% of the participants are blind speculation, "Why ask? Just buy it. Can I harm you?"

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It is a consensus that the real estate market in big countries is in a downward channel. The stimulus policy reflects the rebound in the transaction volume of second-hand houses, but it is noted that the rental-to-sale ratio is still low and the pressure on local fiscal debt is still relatively large. Institutions are talking about other things, but the elephant in the room will explode sooner or later. I don’t think there is any opportunity to buy at the bottom. Pay attention to the new actions of Vanke Longfor.

There is a new controversy about whether to roll or not in the automobile field, but as long as there are people rolling, there will be downward pressure on prices. The production capacity is not excessive, but it is also quite abundant. The extreme right is rising in Europe. Is the domestic market saturated? How to open up the overseas market? Pay attention to the progress of Tesla's driverless driving.

The interest rate curve reflects the market's pessimism about the future. The 50-year yield is lower than the 30-year. In the long season, there will always be a group of people who sink with structural problems.

Optimize asset allocation in an asset shortage environment and go overseas first. The currency circle is at least half of the overseas exposure.

#币安用户数突破2亿

Last night, there was another pin. The 70k position of Bitcoin will continue to have selling pressure caused by profit-taking, which will continue to stimulate risk aversion.

24-25 Perhaps the entire industry is in a gradual process, and it is a process in which other public chains take turns to challenge the dominance of the traditional two strong chains. It is also a process for regulators to explore how to accept the recruitment of the integrated encryption industry.

The challengers have a latecomer advantage relative to the two strong chains, and their respective technological innovations are superimposed. In addition to people who have similar religious beliefs about the two strong chains, most investors will make a cost-effective choice after collecting enough evidence.

At this time, if the price trend of the public chain diverges, it means that it is in the stage of chip turnover, and this type of fluctuation should not be overreacted. We still need to wait for macro signals. The most difficult thing is patience, because you must experience more to understand.

#美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变

BOJ maintains the current interest rate and has not started to reduce the amount of bond purchases. It is very flickering. The yen naturally weakens. The yen accounts for a large proportion of most Asian currency baskets. The currencies of Asia, except for the major countries, weaken. It is noted that the peak of the Japanese stock market is also mostly attributed to the exchange rate calculation.

The weakening of the yen indirectly affects the onshore exchange rate of major countries, and it is expected that the exchange rate supervision will be tightened. The social financing data of major countries is not expected to be weak. The fundamentals can be said to have collapsed, and there is no point of marginal improvement for the time being.

The US c+1 strategy has partially worked. There will be a small peak in Southeast Asian manufacturing and digital finance. Combined with the rising cycle of chips and relatively loose policies, it is expected that there will be more inflows of funds in the currency circle, which is overall positive, but it is still a consolidation market in the near future.

Both AI and blockchain pose huge challenges to regulation.
AI is a big data black box, and blockchain is anonymous decentralization.
Regulators will choose to kill because they don't want to see a new round of enclosure movement.
Those who choose to embrace change are born world citizens and futurists.

The currency of the future is information, and the information of the future is currency.

Recently, it is a strong cycle for chip semiconductors, and major Japanese and Korean manufacturers have started an arms race. With the rebound in exports, KRW and TWD are likely to strengthen, which is likely to be good for crypto assets.

AI requires a lot of computing power, and there are probably two branches:

One is nuclear power. In the long term, pay attention to CGN or Terra Power invested by Gates.

The other branch is distributed computing, which may be linked to blockchain, but no outstanding applications have been seen so far, and it is still at the stage of speculating on white papers. If there is a breakthrough, it must fall on the public chains with the best carrying capacity.

Personally, I am not very satisfied with the experience of Ethereum L2. There is still a congestion problem from L2 to L1, and the speed is only fast on the surface. Welcome to correct me.

Fed higher for longer During this period, it is mainly institutional behavior disturbance. Generally speaking, the risk is still asymmetric, and gamma is good. It also depends on whether Ma Yilong, CZ and his people can help pull it up again.

After Bao Zhongtang made his Hawkish statement, these PPI data are just for fun. The recent trend is that the strong US dollar suppresses the price of crypto assets, which can carry USD and buy on dips to build positions.

From the perspective of street literature, the Fed wants to suck blood from the Eastern powers with high interest rates. The interest rate gap promotes capital outflow from the big countries. HK WM is full of fat, and it is time to cut interest rates. Take off your pants and see? UBS even told a "horror" story about raising interest rates some time ago.

It is predicted that the interest rate will be cut at most once this year.

As for the existing crypto positions, it is still a strategy of hoarding coins, eating interest and accumulating quantity, and waiting for the real bull market of interest rate cuts after the return of US dollars, and the money will be back.

In addition, pay attention to the digital risk of centralized exchanges, pay attention to the decimal points of the contract, and don't be careless. Brothers with longer currency age are likely to have been disgusted, and safety is more important than Mount Tai.

The Fed has repeatedly dispelled expectations of rate cuts, and the market has had some wishful thinking in the past few waves of interest rate declines.

In the Kondratieff recession cycle, there is not much that ordinary people can do. High-frequency stocks are destined to be harvested, and they should calm down and look for high-quality targets and hold them for a long time. Return to fundamentals and return to macro trends. #美联储何时降息？