All of thrse indicstors that i used individualy are now converging for the Grand Finale Trap as i see it. We will see if this time i will be correct or notâïžâïž So far me against all crypto influencers regarding predicting tops is : 4:0 Letâs see if I can get 5:0....
Local top soon or final push into 69-70k then drop. Nice confluence with VWAP targets also.
Sell off early October, full send by mid/late October.
It's just how I'm seeing the local structure. I think the monthly looks fantastic, especially if we close above August's high.
-> Monthly timeframe looks great. -> Lower timeframe structure still comes into question.
My invalidation for further downside is flipping 70k to support. Then I'd simply target 71k.
Reply Guy Protection: - No I won't miss the bullrun if this does not happen - No I won't be sidelined either, because of A) HTF positioning and B) Quite happy to adapt lower timeframe bias upon invalidation. I understand that making $$$ > being right.
Its raining stimulus and BTC is loving it. The cryptocurrency's price rose past $66,000 during the NY hours, validating Thursday's bullish outside day candle.
The hourly chart looks equally bullish with a nice textbook ascending trendline and an expanding channel breakout.
The immediate resistance/target is close to $70K. A move past that level would mark a bullish exit from the mildly descending six-month long price channel.
In traditional markets, gold is looking a bit overstretched relative to its 200-day SMA, prompting calls for rotation of money out of the yellow metal and into other assets like BTC. The steepening of the T-yield curve has stalled with the 10y02y spread narrowing to 18 bps from 22 bps. The renewed relative resilience of the two year yield could be due to markets reassessing the Fed rate cut outlook in the wake of China's stimulus and its potential inflationary impact on commodity prices.
Speaking of commodities, the copper-to-gold ratio has breached the downtrend from May, offering positive cues to commodity bloc currencies, mainly AUD and risk assets in general.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is solidly bid, as Ishiba topped dovish rival to win the top job at the LDP. , the risk barometer of currency markets, is down, suggesting scope for a pullback in risk assets, including #BTC.
The immediate bullish outlook for BTC would be negated below $62.3K.
Broadly speaking, calls continue to be pricier than puts, indicating a bullish bias.
But we saw a large calendar spread cross the tape on Deribit today. Someone bought 225 contracts of Oct expiry 77,000 call while simultaneously selling 225 contracts of Nov expiry 100,000 call.
As expected, #BTCâ broke the high, this is where it's getting risky. DO NOT ENTER HERE!
I told you weeks ago why I was taking positions. A great entry point will come again where less risk is involved for yourself âłïž
Unless we see a substantial uptick in volume, I would expect to see a mild #crypto correction soon, potentially at the red line in #total2.
I do think there is a chance the lows are in. However, a correction to confirm the lows as we roll into October makes perfect sense here.
I think we edge a little bit higher first though, and we see those key data points that I have built for you trigger our short spot đ
PAY ATTENTION here, in time if you see the ORANGE line broken in the #total2 chart, I would expect to see a HUGE vertical in the chart, basically #altseason. #TrendingBinance
In the last cycle, DOGE-BTC went through approximately 56 days of stagnation (red rectangle) and volatility before it exploded. From there, it increased 84 times in relation to #Bitcoin đ€Ż Anyone who invested one #Bitcoin in #Dogecoin at the bottom of the cycle would have ended up with 84 #Bitcoin at the peak.
Now weâre once again in a period of stagnation, which has lasted for 56 days, similarly positioned in relation to the #Bitcoin halving. What do you think will happen this time?
These are just my observations based on comparisons with similar movements in previous cycles and do not represent any financial advice.
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days prior to the 2016 Halving but topped in its Bull Market 518 days after the 2016 Halving
Bitcoin bottomed 517 days prior to the 2020 Halving but topped in its Bull Market 549 days after the 2020 Halving
Bitcoin bottomed 517 days before the 2024 Halving but may very well top in its Bull Market ~549 days after the 2024 Halving
That's October 2025
History suggests two takeaways:
1. The Halving acts like a mirror. Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoms occur a similar amount of days prior to the Halving compared to the amount of days its takes for Bitcoin to form Bull Market Tops after the Halving
2. The best of the Bitcoin Bull Market is yet to come
Many scenarios here. Currently attempting to flip the range high to support. If successful, more tests of 65K.
Others..
1. Lose range high -> take the equal lows 2. MINOR sweep of equal lows + bounce = more 65K tests 3. If break through equal lows, then MSB, n 59K~ likely #BTCâ #BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #TrendingBinance
Overlayed the fractal of last September / October's price action to this year's just for fun.
It serves as a good reminder that September did mark the bottom of the range and "Uptober" led to a solid shift in momentum higher, but the real fun started at the end of the month through December.
I like the idea of the general path. It aligns with my theory of "Range through the election. Rip when it's over."
Everything is falling into place: the bear, the bottom, the bull. Now the only question isâhow high will the new all-time high be this cycle? Global liquidity, rate cuts and #BTCâ scarcity (after the 4th halving) will push the price. #TrendingBinance
Another T/R combo flashing on 1hr (less severe on low time frames)... could go away if we pull up... right now a test really... equities dumped and came back some also #BTCâ #BinanceSquareFamily #TrendingBinance
I honestly don't know what all the fuzz is about with #KASPA
It has clearly been underperforming #Bitcoinâ this entire time since both October 23 & March 24 making LLs & LHs while #BTCâ was doing HLs & HHs
When this re-accumulation ends & both break down way lower, $KAS will clearly break much lower than $BTC...
Not to mention that Kaspa has taken key liquidity above us in the August scam pump & then produced a complacency shoulder so the only way I see from now is further down
For everyone who doesn't believe that #DOGE can perform well and is leaving negative comments about my observations, I have a question: How optimistic were you about #doge⥠at these two points? $DOGE #doge⥠#BinanceSquareFamily