July starts in a few days and this is a rather favorable event for Bitcoin. Historically, even during critical falls, the coin felt the best in July. Currently, most experts who have looked at the charts and studied the cycles in detail believe that the rate of $58K is the limit and cannot be lower.

I also share these thoughts, but I get more optimism not from the publications of experts, but from the contemplation of the “Supply in Profit” indicator, which shows the percentage of circulating supply of BTC that is in a profitable position.

The indicator quite accurately conveys the situation in the market and helps to determine the change from a bull market to a bear market and vice versa. The chart contains a long-term moving average of 1,500 DMA and a standard deviation of 1 SD. Of course, the indicator is not always above 90%. In the difficult periods of 2017 and 2021, deep corrections were observed. In general, the cycle here is set to every 4 years.

This year there were two corrections at once: the first in May -23.4% and the second a little later -16%. If we compare these phenomena with the previous ones, then we can really assume the end of the bull market in 2-3 weeks. With high probability, it can be said when “Supply in Profit” drops below +0.4 SD/

Therefore, the beginning of July or its middle can really become hot not only in terms of weather. Let's hope for the best!