Bitcoin has been falling for nearly half a month, from $72,000 to $62,900, a drop of more than $9,000, or about 12%. This week's opening price broke through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, which is an extremely dangerous signal. It has fallen below the middle track for the first time since October last year, and has failed to break through the high of $72,000 many times before, which has repeatedly reminded the market of the importance of reducing positions at high levels. This trend is similar to the market performance on May 19, 2019, indicating that it may face greater downward pressure.
The market continues to show a negative trend, and multiple rebound attempts failed to break through the key pressure level and encountered downward pressure. Although a descending wedge pattern has formed near $65,000, the lack of rebound has increased the risk of continued decline.
Professional analysis and suggestions
Technical signal analysis: The weekly breakthrough of the Bollinger Band middle track indicates that the uncertainty of the market's medium- and long-term trends has increased, which may foreshadow a further downward trend.
Risk warning: Although a descending wedge pattern has formed near $65,000, the lack of rebound suggests that the market lacks support and may continue to face downside risks.
Strategic advice: Investors should remain vigilant, adjust their positions and risk management strategies in a timely manner, and consider prudently reducing their positions or setting strict stop-loss measures during appropriate rebound periods.
June 7, 2024 - ECB cuts interest rates for the first time in 5 years; BTC has been hit by multiple setbacks at $72,000, short-term issues to watch closely
On June 7, 2024, the European Central Bank announced its first interest rate cut in five years. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered significant resistance around $72,000 several times. Traders should remain vigilant to key short-term market dynamics.
June 11, 2024 - JPMorgan Chase shorts $1 trillion in gold futures; the U.S. dollar index continues to fluctuate; how will the cryptocurrency market respond?
By June 11, 2024, JPMorgan Chase had initiated a trillion-dollar short position in gold futures, while the U.S. dollar index continued to fluctuate. How will the cryptocurrency market respond to these macroeconomic changes?
June 12, 2024 - The weekly chart shows a potential "M" pattern; the spot market recommends reducing positions at high levels; beware of a repeat of the market crash on May 19!
The weekly chart indicates a possible bearish "M" formation on June 12, 2024. Meanwhile, the spot market suggests considering taking profits at high levels and being vigilant to prevent a similar market crash as on May 19 from happening again.
June 13, 2024 - BTC experiences a double kill of long and short positions; CRV faces potential risk of collapse; downward trend continues
As of June 13, 2024, Bitcoin has experienced a bull-bear duel with volatile price movements. Meanwhile, Curve DAO Token (CRV) faces the potential for high volatility, highlighting a continued downtrend.
June 14, 2024 - Repeatedly rejected under strong pressure; the daily chart shows a double Yin sandwiched by a Yang; a sharp drop is expected!
On June 14, 2024, Bitcoin was rejected again under strong selling pressure. The daily chart shows the phenomenon of alternating double negative and positive lines, indicating the risk of a sharp decline.
Ether is not independent of the Bitcoin market, and the weekly chart shows that it is about to test the BOLL middle rail support again, reflecting a strong downward trend. The four-week decline may continue, with the target at $3,355. This range has shown signs of two pin bottoms.
For Bitcoin (BTC), the weekly chart shows that a bear market M-head pattern has been formed, falling below the BOLL middle track and MA120, and continuing to fall without a second rebound test. The next step will continue to test the bottom support range of the box between $60,600 and $62,000. This range is expected to usher in a short-term rebound, so short selling needs to be cautious.
On the monthly chart, the market has been fluctuating at a high level for four months, the RSI has fallen below the overbought area, and the KDJ shows signs of a high-level death cross. The weekly MACD shows a continuous downward trend, and the RSI and KDJ also show signs of turning downward.
Overall, the big cycle shows bearish signals. The first bottom-picking opportunity is expected to be between $59,600 and $62,000, the second is between $55,000 and $56,552, and the third opportunity may appear at $43,000 to $45,000 (in extreme cases). Investors should remain patient and closely monitor the progress of the market.
Ether continues to oscillate inside the triangle on the daily chart and is about to test the support level of $3,355 again. The weekly chart shows that it has touched the middle track of BOLL and is at a high risk of breaking below it, and MACD shows an oil leak in the air. Currently, Ether is still affected by the Bitcoin market, and even if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved on July 4, it will be difficult to change the current market trend. In addition, it should be noted that once it is approved, a situation similar to the Bitcoin spot ETF may trigger a sell-off.
When the U.S. dollar index is unstable, investors are advised to wait and see and do as little as possible. The impact of the global tide of the U.S. dollar continues, and expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut are also ongoing. In my personal opinion, unless the U.S. dollar index shows weakness, it is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term. Currently, the U.S. dollar is facing a critical pressure range of 106, and the pressure area of 106 to 107 is particularly important. We will continue to update market dynamics.
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