#美联储利率决策即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀️ #btc70k #cpi的数据公布

The Federal Reserve is currently holding an FOMC meeting and is expected to announce the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on the 13th. Currently, the market expects that there is a high probability of no change, and more attention is paid to whether the Federal Reserve officials will lower their expectations for rate cuts. In this regard, HSBC analysts pointed out that the Federal Reserve's hawkish attitude may be a starting point for buying risky assets.

At its interest rate decision meeting in early May, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the federal benchmark interest rate at 5.25% to 5.5%, achieving a six-month interest rate freeze. The Fed is currently holding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and is expected to announce the latest interest rate decision at 2:00 am tomorrow (13).

FOMC meeting focuses on interest rate dot plot

According to CME Fedwatch data, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is as high as 99.4%. However, most analysts estimate that more Fed officials will lower their expectations for the number of rate cuts expected this year, reducing the median rate cut of 1 point (0.25 percentage points) from 3 times to 2 times, or even less, so the focus is more on the "interest rate dot plot".

In addition to the interest rate decision, the data of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, an important indicator for measuring inflation, will also be released at 20:30 today. Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal who is known as the "Fed's mouthpiece", said that doves and hawks now agree to continue to wait and see, and CPI will determine whether the expected number of interest rate cuts this year is one, two, or no cut at all.

As shown in the figure below, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April (month-on-month) was 3.4%, and the forecast value this time is also 3.4%. If tonight's data can maintain this value or be lower, the pressure of inflation on the Fed is expected to be more relaxed.

HSBC analyst: The Fed's hawkish attitude is a good time to buy the bottom

On the other hand, analysts at HSBC pointed out that there are some hawkish risks in this interest rate decision meeting. Nevertheless, it is expected that subsequent interest rate fluctuations are unlikely to return to last year's level, and the weak performance of risky assets will be temporary.

Therefore, the Fed's hawkish stance may provide a good entry point for investing in risky assets.

The market is highly uncertain about Fed information

On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is increasingly determined to curb inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has repeatedly stressed the need to reduce the inflation rate to 2%. However, in the current high-interest rate environment, nearly 300 banks in the United States are facing the pressure of bankruptcy, and consumers are forced to change their previous consumption habits.

Further reading: Report: Nearly 300 banks in the United States are facing bankruptcy! High interest rates are on the eve of the bad debt storm

Therefore, the market is eagerly looking forward to the Federal Reserve to implement an interest rate cut as soon as possible, but the Federal Reserve seems to be using "special terms" that the public does not understand to express the current overall economic situation to the public. The most commonly used term is the neutral rate.

Because the neutral rate is not directly observable, most people have no direct way of knowing what the Fed means by it. In short, the neutral rate is not a useful tool for explaining monetary policy to the public.

The neutral rate is also called the long-term equilibrium rate, the natural rate, or r-star or r*. It is the short-term rate of interest when the economy is fully employed and stable. The neutral rate is not set by the Federal Reserve and is usually discussed in terms of real prices, which means that inflation is deducted. In addition, the neutral rate cannot be directly observed and can only be estimated.

In addition, the market is concerned about the 2% inflation rate target emphasized by Powell, but has not seen 2.5% to 3% inflation rates from the Fed or media articles, which will not disrupt the market economy. Therefore, whenever the market hears that the inflation rate exceeds 2%, it will think that the Fed's policy has not achieved its goal, which will cause market panic.

Perhaps, the Fed can convey information through words that are easy for the public to understand, while conveying correct economic concepts, so as to prevent the market from falling into panic due to wrong speculation. Brothers, come together to keep warm +V: BTC7732