During the week, Bitcoin from 67400-67500 reached almost 72K, was above 70K for several days, but last night it somewhat spoiled the picture.
There was a drain below 68500 (the local minimum was set at 68420), which was quickly bought back, and has now been trading between 69100 and 69600 for more than 12 hours.
What was the reason for the leak - there are different opinions.
Rising bond yields and the dollar index after the release of labor market data yesterday?
It's logical. But it is not reliable, since the dollar index grew immediately after the release of the data (15-30 Moscow time), after that, until the end of the American session, its growth was very insignificant. At the release of the data, the dollar index rose from 103.9 to 104.7
And then, until the very end of the session, it grew to 104.915
Bitcoin went below 70K only at 21-00 Moscow time.
There is also a version that connects the fall of the crypto market with the fall of GME shares (the same ones). Yesterday they were expecting a pump, but instead there was a drain of almost 40% (how unexpected)).
This can also be applied to the memcoin market, but it is hardly true to believe that shares acting as PEPE of the American stock market can move the crypto market in such a way.
I think it's a combination of factors.
Firstly, Bitcoin has approached the upper limit of the large range of 66500-72000, in which the price has been since May 20.
Secondly, for several days it was not possible to pass through the resistance area at 71500-72000, although yesterday we almost reached 72K.
Thirdly, there was a strong increase in the dollar index.
Fourth, there is a lot of important news coming out next week and there will be high volatility in all markets.
Against the backdrop of all of the above, many market participants began to take profits or simply leave the market, which caused this drain.
What's next? The lower limit of the large range is at 67000-66500, shall we go to it?
According to Powell, it will depend on the incoming data). More likely no than yes. I think it is more likely that Bitcoin will find support at 68500-68300 and will not go lower.
A clearer picture will emerge when markets open on Monday. Then I’ll decide whether I need to place orders for Bitcoin in the area of 67200-66800, or whether there is little chance of getting there.
Also note that stock indices did not react much to the strong rise in the dollar index and bond yields, although such a rise usually causes the indices to fall.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 5346, losing only 0.11% from its high.
Because market participants understand that the Fed has no alternative to easing monetary policy. The reasons have already been discussed many times, everything is still valid.
For Bitcoin, the general situation also leaves little options. Therefore, let’s go again to 72K from the current range, or first go to 67K, it doesn’t matter.
Alts on the drain suffered more than Bitcoin, the dominance index went above 55%, and is now declining. Suffered more due to low trading volumes and lower quality audiences. Of the $361 million in liquidations that occurred in yesterday's strait, a significant portion came from alts.
This weekend I expect Bitcoin to be in a range with the lower limit at 68800-69000 and the upper limit at 69800-70200
Alternative - consolidation above 70200
