Original title: "The largest single purchase order of over 10 million US dollars in the past year has appeared. Is it brewing a market? ｜WTR 6.03"
Original source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly Review
This week, from May 27 to June 3, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $70687 and the lowest price was close to $66670, with a fluctuation range of about 5%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 67000, which will have a certain support or pressure.
• Analysis: 1. 59000-63000 is about 880,000 coins; 2. 64000-68000 is about 1.16 million coins; • The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 90%; • The probability of not rising below 71000~74000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
1. U.S. data showed that the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter was 1.3%, lower than the initial value of 1.6%, and significantly lower than the growth rate of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
2. The Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE price index for the first quarter was revised to an annualized quarterly rate of 3.6%, lower than the previous expectation of 3.7%.
3. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group said that overall, there were no major surprises, and on the positive side, inflation data was generally lower than expected.
4. Chicago Manufacturing PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the expected value of 41 and lower than the previous value of 37.9.
5. The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, 0.30% lower than expected and 0.30% lower than the previous value.
6. Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," said that today's PCE results had been widely expected two weeks ago and were not expected to change the Fed's recent "wait-and-see" attitude.
7. Before the Fed’s new interest rate meeting on June 12, the Fed members spoke out collectively. Bostic: I don’t think there will be a rate cut in July. If September is suitable for a rate cut, then cut it. If November is suitable for a rate cut, then cut it. Williams: It is not necessary for inflation to reach exactly 2% before cutting interest rates. It is expected that inflation will resume slowing down in the second half of 2024, and interest rates will need to fall at some point.
8. Bank of America data showed that U.S. investors withdrew $6.7 billion from cash in the week ending Wednesday, put $1.8 billion into stocks and $600 million into cryptocurrencies.
Encrypted ecological news
1. U.S. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said the "lame duck session" at the end of the year is the best time to pass major cryptocurrency legislation.
2. Analysis platform Nansen said that DBS Bank holds 173,000 ETH (about US$650 million). DBS Bank is the largest bank in Singapore with US$491.9 billion in assets.
3. Gemini, which was affected by the Genesis bankruptcy case, said that more than a year after the end of Gemini Earn, Earn customers had received $2.18 billion worth of physical digital assets, an increase of 232% from when withdrawals were stopped in November 2022.
4. BlackRock submitted a revised S-1 document for the spot ETH ETF, with the stock code ETHA, which will be listed on the Nasdaq. The media said: BlackRock may purchase $10 million of ETH to provide seed funds for its ETH ETF.
5. Analyst Balchunas believes that the chances of approval will be around July 4, and early approval is unlikely.
6. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires spot ETH ETF issuers to submit the first round of S-1 draft forms by Friday. After that, the SEC will provide the first round of comments and ultimately make further revisions. It is expected that the S-1 form will take at least two rounds of draft submissions before it is ready.
7. According to documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, BlackRock plans to purchase $10 million in ETH as seed funds for the spot ETH ETF.
8. The JPMorgan report stated: The demand for spot ETH ETF will be lower than that for BTC spot ETF. It is expected that the spot ETH ETF will attract up to US$3 billion in net inflows for the rest of the year. If staking is allowed, this figure may be as high as US$6 billion.
9. The president and CEO of Franklin Templeton, one of the first issuers of BTC ETF approved for listing in the United States, said at Consensus 2024 that blockchain technology will be transformative, and pointed out that the company is actively researching and applying the technology, emphasizing the efficiency of blockchain and the potential of tokenization to reduce operating costs.
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• Balance of US crypto ETFs • Creation and destruction of on-chain chips • Large inflows and outflows from exchanges • Distribution of all chips on the chain
(Figure below shows the balance of US crypto ETFs)
ETF balances have recently declined after rising to a peak at the beginning of the year. As time goes by, BlackRock has gradually taken the largest share this year, while Grayscale's share has declined. • ETF balances show that BlackRock is slowly taking the lead.
(Figure below shows the creation and destruction of on-chain chips)
Recently, the creation of on-chain chips has increased significantly, which means that the market is indeed supported by new funds and forces.
(The following figure shows the large inflow and outflow of the exchange)
The recent increase in large outflows from exchanges indicates that a large number of coins have been bought and transferred to exchanges. Increased outflows usually indicate active buying, which supports prices. In addition, outflows in recent days have reached the highest level since the beginning of this year. This may breed greater fluctuations in the future; and after the ETF is approved, and when the ETH ETF is about to be approved, there are major whales who buy a large amount of crypto assets.
(Figure below shows the distribution of all chips on the chain)
• There are a lot of chips held in the $67,000 to $60,000 range. This shows that there are more chips of this cost in this range, about 1.5 million. This range forms an important support for the price, which will lead to a large number of participants who generally carry out an anchoring effect of repurchase after reaching this chip range.
Mid-term exploration
• Old and new coin spending • BTC exchange trend net position • Stablecoin total supply net position • ETH exchange circulation ratio
(The figure below shows the amount of old and new coins spent)
Blue line: New coin supply Pink area: The ratio of old coins to new coins When the pink area rises to a range above 10, the market may be unstable, and the old coin sales ratio is too high. Currently, it is in a high-level chip turnover stage, and the new coin supply has stagnated. The entire cycle may be in the stage of new and old replacement. If there is a lack of new coin supply support, the old coins continue to exert selling pressure, and the market may be in a more anxious stock game environment.
(The following figure shows the trend of BTC exchange net positions)
A large amount of BTC outflowed from the exchange, which may have reduced the potential selling pressure in the market.
(Figure below shows the total supply of stablecoins and net positions)
The overall growth rate of stablecoins is relatively small, and the speed of acquiring incremental amounts in the market may slow down. At the same time, there has been no reduction in the amount of money in the market.
(The following figure shows the proportion of ETH in circulation on exchanges)
The circulation ratio of ETH within the exchange has decreased, and the current market may be more inclined to hoard BTC as a safe-haven structure. At the same time, the downward space may be reduced in the process.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor • Option intention transaction ratio • Derivatives trading volume • Option implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • Bingtangcheng exchange net position • Yitai exchange net position • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin exchange net position • Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red zone. Derivatives risk is increasing.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
This week, we will continue to pay attention to the performance of ETH's risk factor (blue line). Basically consistent with the observations and expectations last week, ETH prices fluctuated, and there was no continuous short squeeze after the risk factor went down. This week, it is expected that the risk factor has reached the red zone. Judging from the risk factor alone, the market may continue to fluctuate and adjust.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options volume fell slightly, and the put option ratio was in the middle.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Last week, the market performance was basically consistent with observations. The positive market sentiment (blue line) did not form a sustained rise, and the price also showed a continuous shock. This week, we will continue to observe the performance of positive market sentiment.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large outflow state, and the selling pressure in the market is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC exchange net positions are in a state of heavy outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a state of heavy outflow.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power remained the same as last week, with stablecoin purchasing power declining slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in the Americas declined slightly this week, but purchasing power in Asia and Europe both recovered slightly. Overall, purchasing power was the same as last week.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
Off-chain transaction data rating: willingness to buy at 65,000; willingness to sell at 71,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at prices around 71,000, 72,000 and 73,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 65000 and 66000; there is a willingness to sell at prices around 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at prices around 71,000, 72,000 and 73,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
1. Following the cooling of CPI in April, the core PCE price index, the most favored inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, fell again, laying the foundation for falling inflation. 2. Data from various aspects such as US GDP show that the US economy is indeed weakening. 3. Powell may no longer be so hawkish at the interest rate meeting in June, giving cryptocurrencies time to bottom out and repair in the middle of the year, waiting for the real upward turning point in the second half of the year. 4. The second quarter may be the turning point of inflation, and the market bets on a real interest rate cut in September with a probability of 51%, and a higher probability in November. 5. ETH's S-1 cousin is expected to have at least two rounds of drafts, and the probability of passing in mid-June is low.
On-chain long-term insights:
• The large outflow from the exchange shows that the willingness to buy at this price is very strong; • The holders of chips in the range of 67,000-60,000 US dollars will support the price; • BlackRock occupies the main position of crypto ETF, and Grayscale begins to shrink gradually; • The chips are created more at this price, which means that real money is entering the market. • Market tone: accumulation and support.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The growth of new coin supply is stagnant, and the consumption of old coins is high; 2. The potential selling pressure within BTC exchanges is small; 3. The incremental purchasing power is slowing down; 4. The safe-haven structure tends to hoard BTC.
• Market tone: neutral and wait-and-see
Judging from the current situation, the market needs new incremental turnover to break through the existing inventory barrier.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor is in the red zone, and the risk is increasing. 2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a low level. 3. Market sentiment rating: neutral. 4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a large outflow, and the selling pressure is low. 5. Global purchasing power is the same as last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has decreased slightly. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 71,000. 7. The probability of not falling below 57,000~61,000 in the short term is 90%; among them, the probability of not rising above 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 67%.
• Market tone: Market sentiment is generally neutral, the short-term holder cost line (short-term strong support) has come to around 62K, the large outflow of chips in the exchange and the long-term low derivatives trading volume indicate that the next big market is brewing. This week, the overall probability of a large short squeeze is still expected to be low, and it is more inclined to fluctuate upward, and the probability of a large market decline is still very low.
Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks. This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
This article is contributed by a contributor and does not necessarily represent the views of BlockBeats.
