Recently, every half a month, or even every week, we have to look at the data of the Federal Reserve and the United States. The correlation is getting stronger and stronger. On the way to rise, we don’t know which data is a speed bump and which data is a booster. In the end, as long as it is not a cliff, it will continue to fluctuate upward, right?
From the current general direction, the market may not necessarily fluctuate upward. After all, with the strong correlation with the US stock market and the US economy, it is now racing against time. Who are we racing against? It is racing against the US election. Not only the currency circle is racing, but also the stock market and the financial market are racing.
At present, the US economy is like a blown-up balloon, expanding every day (high interest rates). Although it has not reached its limit yet, it will definitely burst if it continues to expand like this. The only way to prevent this balloon from bursting is to deflate the balloon (lower interest rates), rather than poke it with a needle (black swan).
If the "soft road" approach is still maintained before the US election, then there is still a channel for relief in the US election for the market, but if it is punctured before the election, the US election may be the beginning of "blowing the balloon" again.
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