The first quarter GDP and PCE growth rates announced by the US last night were both significantly lowered, with the economy slowing down and inflation cooling down. The core PCE price index grew 3.6% quarter-on-quarter on an annualized basis, down 0.1 percentage point from the initial value of 3.7%, and up 2% from the fourth quarter of last year.

Another data showed that the number of first-time claims in the US rose to 219,000 in the week of May 25, and the four-week average first-time claim reached the highest level in eight months. Overall, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits showed an upward trend, and the US job market cooled down slightly with difficulty. It can be seen that last night's data were basically conducive to a rate cut. CME also promptly adjusted its September rate cut expectations to 51.5%. This probability has increased by 6.5 percentage points compared to the 45% the day before. However, this cannot be regarded as a reversal. Everything depends on the performance of the April PCE inflation data to be announced at 8:30 tonight. The current expectation is that the core PCE will be 2.8% year-on-year and the broad PCE will be 2.7% year-on-year. Both expectations are consistent with the previous values. Considering that too many officials have made hawkish remarks recently, tonight's PCE data will be considered good news as long as it meets expectations. If it is lower than expectations, it will definitely be a big positive, and it may even significantly increase the possibility of a September rate cut. So let's wait and see tonight on time.