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How much selling pressure and impact will Mt.Gox bring to the market in the future? Will it lead to a big drop?
Mt. Gox confirmed the transactions were intended to prepare for repayments to creditors ahead of an October 31 deadline.
The bitcoins transferred from the Mt.Gox address today are worth about $9.8 billion, which is nearly half of the bitcoins held by BlackRock and Grayscale. Such a large amount of money can easily make people panic.
But in fact, the selling pressure that Mentougou can bring is not great. It cannot be said that there is no impact, but it is actually not great. There are three reasons:
1. In the repayment plan provided by Mt.Gox to creditors, the repayment amount includes a "basic repayment" part and a "proportional repayment" part. The amount of the basic repayment part is the same, and the proportional repayment part can choose "mid-term repayment and final repayment" or "early lump sum repayment".
Mt.Gox did not disclose the specific follow-up situation, which means that creditors will not receive all the compensation assets at one time.
It may even take several years for some of them to obtain more compensation, which means that the release of this part of Bitcoin may not be very concentrated and will not cause a very concentrated market impact;
2. Most creditors may have transferred their Bitcoin claims. Some bonds may have been transferred to institutions at a discount. The current price of BTC does not make it tempting for institutions to sell.
For example, Mt. Gox's largest creditors, Bitcoinica and MGIF, chose a one-time payment option and chose to receive their bankruptcy recovery primarily in the form of Bitcoin rather than fiat currency, and will not sell it.
Believers who are optimistic about Bitcoin will not sell until the compensation stage, so this will not cause much pressure;
3. Stress test of Bitcoin ETF. It has been ten years since the Mentougou incident. By then, the situation has changed dramatically. The listing of Bitcoin ETF has become the highlight of the industry. Compared with the previous market, it is no longer the same. Institutions and wealthy people are eagerly waiting to buy. If the price of Bitcoin falls, they will not miss such a good buying opportunity.
Therefore, in the long run, the Mentougou incident will be used by capital to create short-term panic, thereby washing out cheaper chips. In the long run, the Mentougou incident is unlikely to cause a big impact on the market, let alone a fatal blow.
There may be an impact, but it will not be significant. If you see a big drop, be prepared to buy bravely!
The Mentougou incident led to a drop in the market, and the drop is an opportunity for us to make arrangements!
Next, let’s pay attention to some positive news to arrange spot transactions!
1. Apple's developer conference will start in June and launch new artificial intelligence features. This is good news for RNDR, ARKM, and WLD in the AI sector. The market is falling and it is just the right time to buy the bottom! You can run before the short-term benefits come into effect.
2. ZhuSu, the former founder of Three Arrows Capital, predicted that the market will be dominated by ETH for 90 days, and focused on buying LDO. If LDO pulls back, it is also possible to deploy a wave of spot!
3.LINK - Chainlink and Swift will discuss tokenization on May 30. There are rumors that Chainlink will make a major announcement. The leader of the oracle sector can also lay out a wave of spot!
4.UNI - The Uniswap Foundation plans to conduct on-chain voting to enable the fee sharing mechanism starting May 31st. You can follow the trend of UNI!
5.$FLOKI - Floki announced the launch of a closed beta version of its trading robot. The beta will last for two weeks before the official release. FLOKI is also a relatively strong meme coin. When it falls, it is really the time to enter the market!
6. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.1%
7. Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will cut interest rates in September and December
These are the recent news. The good news is the propellant that promotes the market to rise. As long as there are no sudden events that hit the market, such as black swan events, then the positive narrative will lead to a rise in the market!
The copycats for major events in June: MEME sector, L2 sector currencies, Binance IEO new coin sector, AI smart sector, and a fan token sector, and the European Cup hype in June!
Today's big cake market analysis:
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin reached a high of $70,626. The upper pressure is at $71,400, but it failed to reach expectations, showing the volatility of the market. The current market is volatile, with Bitcoin supported at around $67,280-68,550, and the pressure range of $69,200 to $70,200.
The current market is still in a data and news blank period, and the main players dare not act rashly. However, as time goes by, the market becomes more favorable to bulls. The next major expectation is a rate cut, even if it does not happen in June, it may happen in July or August. The rate cut may be delayed, but it will come eventually. At the same time, the demand for Bitcoin continues to grow, while the supply is decreasing. This year's bull market will be a slow and steady rise.
Bitcoin has a major resistance level of $71,000 and a key support level of $66,250. Some altcoins have performed well recently, and it is recommended to pay attention to potential coins. The market sentiment is bearish, so you need to be cautious when operating and pay attention to the latest market trends.
The current trend is a pullback after a breakthrough. As long as it cannot effectively fall below 67,000, it will have no impact on the bullish situation. It only needs to wait for a sudden opportunity to directly break through 70,000. Pay attention to 67,000-67,500 below. Any pullback is an opportunity for layout. Pay attention to the short-term resistance above the 70,000-71,000 range. If you want to break through the range, you must increase the volume. The current market liquidity is poor and the volume is insufficient.
Short-term trading opportunities In the volatile market, pay attention to the fluctuations of Bitcoin in the support of $68,280 and the pressure range of $69,200 to $70,200, and look for intraday trading opportunities.
In terms of operation, continue to maintain the idea of low-buy and breakthrough: if it falls back to around 67500, you can buy at a low price, and if it breaks through 70000, you can follow the trend to buy.
Today's Auntie market analysis:
Yesterday, the price of ETH rose to $3,929, but then fell back. Investors mainly tend to operate long positions, but short positions are also increasing under high leverage.
The market shows signs of shock and wash-out, but there are still intraday trading opportunities.
The liquidation chart shows that there are a large number of liquidation orders below the market in the 12-hour and 1-hour cycles. This is an important factor for not daring to go long rashly. The current market shock and wash characteristics require high vigilance, pay close attention to market trends and changes in trading volume, and avoid excessive leverage operations.
The current ETH market sentiment is relatively complex, with fierce competition between long and short forces. When operating, you should pay attention to position management and avoid frequent trading. In addition, pay attention to changes in the global macroeconomic environment, especially the policy trends of the Federal Reserve, which may have a significant impact on the market. You must follow the trend instead of resisting it.
ETH is relatively strong in the current trend and may be the key to driving the entire market. We should also pay attention to the Ethereum sector. There will definitely be a wave of speculation before it is listed on the exchange in July or August.
In terms of operation, continue to maintain the idea of buying low and breaking through: when it falls back to around 3820-3800, you can buy low and go long!
In terms of altcoins:
New coins are still worth keeping an eye on. This time, the new coin $BB performed very well. BB announced a partnership with Ethena, which directly boosted the market, doubling in three days! The narrative of new coins can greatly promote their own market!
The ETH series of currencies have great potential in the future. After the ETH ETF is passed and can be traded, and then the Prague upgrade of ETH, all of these will promote the trend of ETH. The takeoff of ETH will definitely drive the related sector currencies!
Modular L2 and re-staking have become the main narratives of this round of ETH ecology, and the new currency $MANTA belongs to the modular L2 sector!
Recently, Manta Network has also come up with a new narrative. It recently launched the CeDeFi product. Users can deposit assets such as wBTC/BTCB, wETH/STONE, USDT/USDC/wUSDM into the CeDeFi platform through the three chains of Ethereum, BNB chain and Manta Pacific.
The CeDeFi platform is not only the beginning of the Manta RWA product, but will also become the issuance platform and interface for more RWA assets in the future, providing real returns to users.
The CeDeFi platform maps assets to exchanges through the custodian service provider Ceffu, and asset management institutions execute strategies such as rate arbitrage to generate currency-based returns. These strategies originally only served VIP customers of exchanges, and Manta Network brought these advanced strategies to the chain by cooperating with these institutions.
In a bull market, through the CeDeFi ecosystem, users can not only increase the number of tokens in their hands, but also obtain multiplied U-based returns when the token price rises. Manta CeDeFi products have thus become one of the few products on the market that can earn real currency-based returns, providing users with unique investment opportunities.
Moreover, Manta Network is committed to providing modular blockchain support for zero-knowledge proof (ZK) applications, and its CeDeFi ecosystem has demonstrated outstanding innovation in this field.
Manta Pacific is a modular Layer2 solution designed specifically for the EVM ecosystem. It implements ZK-as-a-Service through Manta's universal ZK circuit and uses the Celestia data availability layer to provide modular support, thereby providing users with the lowest gas cost and the best user experience.
Manta Network's innovations and advantages in the field of modularity and ZK technology-based technology are very good, and the potential applications and future development directions of ZK technology are also huge!
Manta's business development (BD) and resource capabilities are also of great importance in project development!
Also, stay tuned for Manta’s upcoming MEME Season event to not miss out on any exciting content and opportunities!
The opportunity of new coins and new narratives will also have a certain promoting effect on the market of this currency!
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