Author:Mike
A. Market View
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity improved. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers were concerned about insufficient progress in reducing inflation, suggesting that the wait-and-see attitude of maintaining high interest rates should last longer. Expectations of interest rate cuts have been repeated, and the US dollar index fell on a weekly basis. US technology stocks continued to lead the market, and all three major stock indexes hit record highs. The crypto market rebounded strongly following the US stock market.
2. Market conditions
Top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
BTC rebounded this week, and ETH led the gains significantly. The main trend of the market revolved around ETH and Meme sectors.
1. ETH: The US SEC requires the accelerated update of ETH ETF application documents, and the probability of ETF approval has increased from 25% to 75%. The deadline for several ETF approvals has been extended from May 23 to August 7. However, Bloomberg predicts that the ETH ETF will only reach 10% of the size of the BTC ETF.
2. ZKSYNC: L2's Zksync plans to airdrop in June, with a total of 21 billion tokens and a market value of $10 billion. ARB, OP, and STRK in the same track all have a market value of around $12 billion.
3.LISTA: Binance Exchange Metadrop platform will list LISTA, which is a liquidity pledge and decentralized stablecoin protocol. Metadrop’s latest two products, BB and LISTA, are both projects made by the original Bsc chain Auction and Hay team, and are slightly lacking in innovation.
3. BTC Market
1) On-chain data
The number of long-term BTC holders decreased, while the number of short-term holders increased. The market showed partial divergence, the rate of new capital inflow slowed down, and long-term volatility converged.
The market value of stablecoins remains flat, and long-term funding fundamentals remain positive.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 2.5, entering the middle stage.
Institutional funds reversed the trend of outflows for two consecutive weeks, and investors are optimistic about the outlook.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: This week, the rate increased slightly. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate is -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: BTC open interest increased significantly this week, with major market players entering the market.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
3) Spot market
BTC rebounded to a near-new high. The probability of ETH spot ETF passing increased significantly, triggering a general rise in the altcoin season.
B. Market Data
1. Total locked-up amount of public chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week, the total TVL was $106.3 billion, up about $13.1 billion, or 14%. This week, ETH rose by nearly 30%, directly breaking through $3,800, and ETH led a small climax in the market. This week, the TVL of mainstream public chains all rose, with the ETH chain rising by 20%, the TRON chain rising by 3%, the BSC chain rising by 9%, the SOLANA chain rising by 7%, the ARB chain rising by 18%, and the BLAST chain rising by 28%. The most outstanding MERLIN chain soared by 171% this week, among which Merchant Finance's TVL increased by 41,730% in the past week. Merchant Finance is a financial lending platform developed on the Merlin chain, allowing users to borrow and lend through smart contract interactions.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol
1) ETH locked amount
2) BSC locked amount
3) Polygon locked-up amount
4) Arbitrum locked amount
5) Optimism lock-up amount
6) Base lock-up amount
7) Solana locked amount
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT trading market share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market have risen and fallen, and the overall market performance is still sluggish. ETH's leading rise this week did not bring any signs of recovery to the NFT market. This week, BAYC fell 5%, CryptoPunks fell 12%, DeFrogs fell 3%, LilPudgys fell 8%, Pudgy Penguins and Azuki both rose 10%, Milady rose 27%, MAYC rose 6%, Pixelmon rose 21%, and DeGods fell 29%. The transaction volume of the NFT market continued to decline, and the number of first-time and repeat buyers did not rebound significantly.
