ETH surged 20% today, and the reason is still related to the ETF approaching May 23. The SEC may first approve a 19b-4, and then slow down the approval of S-1, which means that it will not be able to really approve the listing and trading on May 23, but just complete the previous preparation process first, and then slowly approve the listing and trading process later, because the real big boss BlackRock's application deadline is in August, so in theory he can drag it. But the reason why it has risen so much is that the expectation of passing has accelerated, and it is very likely that it will be truly market-oriented in the third quarter of this year.
The inflow of Bitcoin ETF on May 20 was okay, with a single-day inflow of 235 million US dollars and 3,518 coins, all of which were inflows. Grayscale has turned to net inflows for the third consecutive day. Although this wave of rise was driven by ETH, with the support of ETF, Bitcoin is still only 4% away from setting a new record high, while ETH still has 25%.
Yesterday, many people drew a big question mark about the unlocking of PYTH. Why did such a large amount of unlocking still rise? The most fundamental problem is that the project party secretly modified the unlocking date. The tokens that were originally announced to be unlocked on May 20 were brought forward to May 19. In other words, the 20% drop on May 19 was caused by the early cliff unlocking. In summary, this project party is very cutting. With such a large amount of unlocking, the project party actually used such a despicable means to do something in the market. Those who shorted at the timing should all lose money.
Then let’s talk about what will happen if ETH’s ETF is passed. It should be the same as the result of Bitcoin ETF. First of all, it is to buy expectations and sell reality. As long as it has not been listed, it can still speculate on expectations, but if it is really listed, it means that the good news has landed. In addition, after passing, Grayscale will also pass it together. Grayscale’s ETHE currently holds 2.93 million ETH, and there are still many funds that need to be cleared first, so there is also a huge redemption demand. If it follows the same rhythm as Bitcoin, Grayscale will sell about 20% of ETH in the first three weeks, about 500,000. Doesn’t it sound scary? However, all of this is speculation, and the real result will have to wait until the day after tomorrow. The best case scenario is that the approval is passed, but the subsequent listing time will be delayed.
It actually went up last night. People who sleep late may be able to get 3,000 points by chasing highs. Although the big cake has risen less, it will still soon see a new historical high, and it should come soon. Now almost all technical forms and long and short forces are looking at the bulls. Talking about the second cake, there is no need to chase the rise and fall because of temporary weakness, but for those who have not made a choice, I always think that the one with stronger certainty is the more correct choice. Don’t look at it. It rose by 20% today. If the good news is really exhausted, Grayscale will start redemption, and it will also experience the market of Bitcoin in late January.
For the copycat, the Ethereum system (E prefix) must have risen the most today, especially ENS, which is blessed by Vitalik. But this thing is over after the last shout. I think RWA+E prefix seems to be a better choice, although slow, but stable.
