After Ethereum successfully applied for ETF!
Ethereum's application for ETF is not a false proposition, but it is a bit difficult.
Judging from recent reports from the US media and some comments on ETH by the chairman of the SEC in public, the probability of successful application for Ethereum spot ETF is 25%, which is much lower than the probability prediction when Bitcoin ETF was passed before.
This week, the SEC needs to make a final decision on the applications of VanEck and Ark/21Shares (on the 23rd and 24th respectively), and the final decision on Grayscale needs to be made on the 30th.
The biggest problem at present is that the SEC has not clearly determined that Ethereum is a security or a commodity. It is reported that the SEC is still considering this issue in the document on March 8.
Therefore, it is extremely important whether the FIT21 bill on cryptocurrency regulation mentioned above is passed.
The bill may amend the regulations on the classification of relevant cryptocurrency securities and commodities, and it also plays a key role in the characterization of ETH.
Grayscale withdrew its application for Ethereum ETF before, and it may be waiting to see the specific results of the bill.
In fact, even if the probability of passing is only 25%, this probability is relatively high.
Today's article will discuss what impacts will be brought if the Ethereum ETF is approved.
First, the approval of the Ethereum ETF will directly drive up the price of Ethereum.
There is nothing to question about this.
In particular, the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin has been falling for a long time, reaching a low point in the past year. If such a positive factor appears, it will certainly stimulate price increases.
As for whether Grayscale will sell ETH after it is approved.
It will definitely be. This is caused by customer demand, not something that Grayscale can decide. However, if you look at the example after BTC was approved before, you will understand that there is no panic.
At present, the mood of the Ethereum spot ETF application being rejected is being digested.
In summary, if the Ethereum ETF is approved, it should break through 3500 on the first day, or even higher 3800, and it will break through the previous historical high within a month.
Second, it will promote the ETF application of other cottages, especially SOL, and at the same time promote the cottage bull market.
If the Ethereum spot ETF application is approved, SOL should also apply for ETF soon, and of course other cottages will apply.
Since the market started to go down, the SOL project team has been working hard to maintain its market value. One of the reasons is that if the Ethereum ETF is approved, SOL will immediately prepare to apply for the ETF. It is certain that some companies are already preparing the materials.
The passing of the spot ETF will drive the altcoins out of a wave of market conditions, and will also give security tokens a sigh of relief.
At that time, the tokens that may have the fastest and highest growth rates due to securities issues in the past year (ADA, MATIC, DOT, ATOM, etc....).
At the same time, ETH's related sectors will rise, and the activity on the chain will increase.
Third, there may be a blood-sucking market, reducing the market share of Bitcoin.
Since entering this round of bull market, Bitcoin's market share has been very high for a long time, which is not in line with the situation of the big bull market in previous years.
If the Ethereum spot ETF is passed, it will push the altcoin market value up, and Bitcoin's blood-sucking market may end.
Some people say, then Bitcoin will not rise?
The real Bitcoin market should be after the interest rate cut. The passing of the Ethereum ETF is not actually a positive for Bitcoin.
The application of the Ethereum ETF actually has a greater impact on the entire altcoin market, because in essence, Ethereum is the leader of the altcoin.
To put it another way, if it fails this time, there will be negative impacts, such as plug-in and even copycat plug-in, but it is not too bad. After all, the market has been digesting it, which is also a point that needs attention.
In today's market, the emergence of negative factors is an opportunity and a time to test positions.
In short, there are two possibilities: if it fails, it will be plug-in; if it passes, it will soar.
We just need to adapt to these two possibilities.
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