Let's talk about the difference between investment speculation and gambling.
First of all, most gambling games run within established rules. After mathematical calculation of the profit and loss ratio, it is not difficult for everyone to find that his expected return is negative. What is expected return?
Remember the example of rock-paper-scissors just now? If you win, I will give you 100, and if you lose, you will give me 50. Everyone knows that this is cost-effective. The opposite is not cost-effective. Some games in the casino are that you win and earn 100, and lose 110.
You may be lucky once or twice, but you will definitely not leave when you make money. You will continue to play, hoping for a hundred. Over time, you will naturally lose it. And when your position is too large, you may get out of the game after playing a few rounds. This is a transaction with a very poor expected return and profit and loss ratio.
After all, the game we just talked about is an example of our imagination. In reality, there is no such good thing for you. Let's go to the casino to see what real gambling is like. The most deceptive thing in the casino is the slot machine, and the casino likes to put it in the most conspicuous place at the gate.
Let's make an assumption about the actual situation and do some calculations. Suppose you play once with one dollar, the grand prize win rate is 0.01%, giving you 50 dollars, the winning rate is 5%, giving you 10 dollars, and the small prize is 10%, returning the one dollar you play, to keep you stimulated and not let you get numb and feel bored and stop playing.
Let's use mathematics to calculate the expected return of 50*0.0001+10*0.05+1*0.1=0.605 yuan, which means that if you play once with one dollar, the net loss is less than 40 cents in theory, which means that Jack Ma has 60 million left after playing 100 million.
You happened to pass by and saw someone earning this 50, the machine was flashing, and everyone was watching. The primitive intuition of human nature made you forget the teachings of the elementary school math teacher, and made you think that seeing someone win means that the probability is not low, I have to try it.
When you spent 20 yuan, you happened to draw a 10 yuan, and you said, "Oh, look, I spent 1 yuan this time and won 10 yuan, earning 9 yuan. If I play again, I will soon get my money back." You sat there all afternoon and gambled away all the money in your pocket. When it was time for dinner, you found that the free noodles in the casino tasted pretty good. Think about it carefully, isn’t the 100x contract very similar to this kind of slot machine?
Go to the casino and take a look at the expected return and profit and loss ratio, and you will find that most games are not fun.It's all big money for small money.
We know that trading is exchanging one resource for another. Calculate the difference in the expected return of gambling. What resource was the disappeared money exchanged for? You used the disappeared money to buy your gambling entertainment consumption experience from the casino, just like you spent money to watch a movie, but this movie was a bit expensive.
After the casino collected the money, minus the operating costs such as rent, water, electricity, and labor, it is the profit of the casino shareholders. Then let's make a point. The characteristics of gambling are small profits and big losses, big money for small money, and the difference in expected returns is exchanged for extremely strong mental stimulation and entertainment.
So, don't complain if you lose 100x at a high multiple. Just say, did you feel good?
If you didn't feel good, why did you have to be so big?
Are you trying to bluff to scare off your opponent? Adults should be responsible for the results of their investment decisions.
If you don't know how to screen strong coins, then I suggest you pay attention to me. Whether it is spot or contract, a slight move may be your limit. The opportunity is very short, so you must seize it! Success is not based on luck, choice is greater than hard work, and the circle determines destiny. In the currency circle, in addition to having a keen eye for judging the situation, you must also keep up with a good team and a good leader. If you follow me, you are already halfway to success in the currency circle!
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