When BTC was only over 20,000 US dollars, we were able to draw such a conclusion based on the total market value of stablecoins and the main stablecoins stored in the exchange, that at the beginning of 2023, the funds on the market were enough to push#BTCand#ETHto their historical highest prices, but the price at that time was only 30% of the highest price. This was not due to lack of funds, but the lack of driving force for the funds on the market to go out.
And it is very likely that the stimulation of external funds has made the funds on the market active. Whether this is the real conclusion, I dare not be 100% sure, but through the data of#BTCspot ETF, we can see that the net purchase of more than 530,000 BTC in four months has basically nothing to do with stablecoins, and it is entirely driven by the USD standard.
In addition, the market value of the main stablecoins has set new highs many times this year, and the price of BTC has also temporarily exceeded US$73,000. Therefore, I still think that the current funds are sufficient to trigger a larger-scale bull market, but it will inevitably require the stimulation and drive of external funds, and external funds must rely on the improvement of liquidity. From the essence of the currency market, it is a favorable stimulus, such as spot ETFs, halving, FASB, etc. From a macro perspective, it is the end of the interest rate hike cycle, loosening of monetary policy, the US election, and so on.
