Almost a month has passed since Bitcoin's halving, but the expected recovery has still not occurred. Market participants are enthusiastically anticipating a bull run for both BTC and altcoins. However, the Altcoin season started in September 2023 and there has been a downturn in the last six weeks.
Altcoins still have a lot to face. However, even during this six-month period, they made a good return. As Bitcoin approaches the top of this cycle, it remains to be seen how intense the altcoin season could get.
Revisiting Past Cycle Performance
During the 2020 cycle, the altcoin market cap increased from $51.2 billion in May 2020 to $1.13 trillion in November 2021. This would represent a 21.6x increase, and a similar performance during this cycle could push the market cap as high as $6 trillion.
This seems like a pretty impressive figure compared to its market cap, which is currently around $640 billion. But crypto cycles often tend to exceed expectations.
Although altcoins have performed well recently, they have to compete with Bitcoin to attract capital inflows.
This may change as investors seek to take on more risk, rely on long-term crypto gains, and seek to expand their altcoin holdings.
Bitcoin Dominance May Continue to Hold the Key
As Bitcoin dominance declines, altcoin headwinds could trend dramatically higher. This chart shows what percentage of the total crypto market capitalization Bitcoin controls.
Once a serious downtrend begins, it will indicate that participants are starting to show more interest in altcoins rather than Bitcoin.
Over the last 13 months, BTC's dominance has been slowly rising. This is a typical feature of bear markets and often continues towards the end of bull runs. A freefall trend in this metric for several months marks the beginning of a true altcoin season.
Comparing the altcoin market cap chart to the BTC.D chart, we can see that the biggest altcoin gains are made when we see a downtrend in Bitcoin dominance. Therefore, market participants anticipating an altcoin season this cycle should pay attention to observing a decline in Bitcoin dominance.
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