Bitcoin was around 63K a week ago. On May 6, there was an attempt to go above 65K, but it did not lead to success. The price of the main cryptocurrency began a slow decline and has so far found intermediate support in the area of 60500-60000
IBIT rose and fell during the week, but in the end it closed at 34.39 - approximately where it was a week ago.
The S&P 500 rose over the week and closed above 5200 (at the levels of early April).
The dollar index rose over the week, but not particularly significantly.
There is also no particular negativity on the crypto market itself. The obscurantism from the SEC is visible, Gensler periodically throws into the information space statements about the recognition of certain alts of the Central Bank, but this has already become commonplace and does not scare anyone.
Why don't we grow then?
Firstly, before the halving, many people entered Bitcoin (both real and through ETFs) who were waiting for the immediate launch of the rocket after the halving. There is no rocket, they are disappointed and are selling.
Secondly, in the first couple of months of its operation, a lot of retail audiences came through the ETF (and of very dubious quality, since they did not buy Bitcoin before and without any ETFs). While Bitcoin updated its highs every week, they were happy and gained ground. As soon as the market moved into a correction followed by stagnation, who sold at all in the negative, and who sold when there was an increase of a couple of percent.
The issue of audience quality is underestimated by many. And it is very important.
There is now growing fear and uncertainty in the market. The index of fear and greed is already in the neutral zone. In the event of another spill below 60K, and especially in the event of new highs, everyone will be scared.
But don’t forget that after the last halving the same thing happened. The halving has passed, the Fed lowered the rate after the coronavirus psychosis, money is being distributed left and right, and Bitcoin moves from 9000 to 10400 and shows no signs of growth. Then there was a breakthrough to 12K, a rollback to the original level, and then real growth (more than 6 times per year).
Read the Reviews for April-July 2020 on this channel, plunge into the atmosphere).
Now the situation is developing in a very similar way. Despite the fact that the ATH was already there, and the Fed had not yet lowered the rate.
But what are you waiting for now?
In a thin weekend market there may be either a spill towards 59000-58600 or a rise towards 63000-63500.
I remind you of the importance of the capitalization level of 2 trillion. Without any strong shocks, its loss (that is, consolidation of capitalization below 2 trillion for more than a day) seems unlikely to me.
The priority option for the weekend is Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit at 59000-58600 and an upper limit at 62800-63200
Alternative - fixation below 58600
Next week we will watch the development of events, but remember an important principle - the longer something happens, the less there is left.
We have been in the range for quite a long time. This means the exit is getting closer.
