There were 4 major events last night, 3 of which were negative:

(1) Fed’s Logan said that there is a significant upside risk to inflation and it is too early to consider a rate cut, which is negative

(2) The expected inflation rate for the US in May was 3.2%, and the announced value of 3.5% was higher than expected, which is negative for the cryptocurrency market

(3) The US Consumer Confidence Index for May was expected to be 76, and the announced value was 67.4, which is positive

(4) The Israeli Security Cabinet voted to approve the expansion of operations in Rafah, which is negative

There are 4 scenarios in the future, all of which will be determined by the peace talks between Israel and Hamas and the CPI data next Wednesday

(1) Successful peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 10%

BTC soared back to 70,000

(2) Failed peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 35%

A big drop in the failed peace talks and a rebound in the CPI lower than expected, BTC remained at around 60,000, but the copycats were bleeding and injured

(3) Successful peace talks + CPI higher than expected: probability 35% In this case, the success of the peace talks is not a positive, it can only be said that it will not fall.

(4) Failure of peace talks + CPI higher than expected: probability 20% Both are negative, the market has not recovered yet