The data on Wednesday was more active than the previous two working days, especially the early investors had a turnover of nearly 16,000 BTC at $40,000, which is a relatively rare situation. I checked the transfer-in and transfer-out data of the exchange and found that it may not be related to the turnover of the exchange.
When checking the exchange data, we often say that BTC has low liquidity and many investors are reluctant to sell their chips, but there is no quantitative standard. Even if we observe the fluctuations of BTC on the chain every day, it is difficult to know the real interaction data with the exchange. So, today I checked this data and found that the data in the past two weeks is indeed "bearish". It can be clearly seen from the data of transfers in and out of the exchange that the data of interaction with the exchange in the past three weeks is at a lower level in the past six months, especially the data in the past two working days, which is the lowest single-day transfer-in and transfer-out data in the past year.
This shows that there are indeed more investors who are unwilling to sell their chips and have little interest in buying. Even though the buying and selling sentiment seemed good last Friday, and the#Bitcoinspot ETF saw net inflows for two consecutive days, the actual purchasing power is still the lowest level in the past year. This reflects both the lack of liquidity and the low market sentiment. The price fluctuations we see are actually caused by a small amount of chips in circulation. If more BTC participates in the flow, the situation may be worse. Of course, the "bear" in the data does not necessarily mean that the price will fall. There is no inevitability. After all, the data we see now shows that although the purchasing power is poor, the selling pressure is also very low, and it can still maintain a barely oscillating balance. The "bear" in the data represents the current lying flat mentality of many investors.
At present, the profit chips below $60,000 have been almost cleaned up. In the past two days, investors who made profits last week between $56,000 and $60,000 have almost left, and the remaining turnover is getting lower and lower. However, the stage between $63,000 and $65,000 continues to maintain high turnover, and these short-term investors are the main reason for the current price changes. On the contrary, the degree of turnover participation among investors with holding prices above US$65,000 is gradually decreasing.At present, more than 415,000 BTC are still gathered at the strongest support level of $66,200 in the near term, and investors at this position are still less willing to leave.
Judging from the stock data of the exchange, there are still nearly 17,000 BTC in the market, and there is no obvious sign of leaving for the time being. It is estimated that these investors are also waiting for better opportunities.
