Bitcoin moved within the range of 59191-63555 during the day

At the time of writing the Review, the price of the main cryptocurrency was 60266

Market capitalization 2.17 trillion, Bitcoin dominance index 54.78%, fear index Stock markets fell yesterday.

The S&P 500 closed at 5081 (minus 0.68%), the Nasdaq fell almost 2%. Prchiina - ECI (wage growth dynamics) came out yesterday, significantly higher than expected. Rising wages = high inflation expectations = less chance of the Fed moving quickly to lower rates = market decline.

Amazon's report came out better than expected. But judging by the post-market, we shouldn’t expect strong movements there.

The direction of market movement in the near future will be determined today at the Federal Reserve meeting. There is no intrigue in the decision itself; the main event is the press conference. Will the emphasis be on fighting inflation, or will it be about supporting the economy? Will there be any talk about QT slowing down? Will they say anything about the timing of the rate cut? The answers to these questions will determine where the stock market goes. Will the S&P 500 drop below 5000 again with the prospect of moving to 4800, or should we go to 5200?

Now S&P 500 futures are almost there, bond yields are at 4.68% (extremely high), the dollar index is at 106.300 (very high, bad for markets).

The Fed meeting and press conference will be at 21-00-22-00 Moscow time.

Bitcoin moved yesterday according to the Review. Just at the lower limit of the range, the local minimum of Bitcoin was established. At night there was a rebound above 61K, followed by a return to the area of ​​60300-59600, where the price of the main cryptocurrency is now located.

I spoke about Hong Kong ETFs yesterday - due to low volumes, they only added to the negativity on the market. IBIT (BlackRock ETF) fell more than 6% yesterday. There has been no influx of finance into it for almost a week. The reasons are also clear - the primary and deferred demand has been satisfied (those who wanted it bought it), new ones are not particularly coming due to deer thinking (Bitcoin is stagnating and is slowly falling, so there are no people willing to buy. Some even dump what they bought earlier. If it goes to highs, they will start buying . To then sell on the fall)).

CZ was given 4 months. The deadline is, of course, purely formal; you can defend it on one leg. Maybe the house arrest he had will be partially counted. But the main thing is not how long to sit, but how. It is important that everything is fine with him there. Because there are ideal conditions for some kind of provocation.

It's good that you got rid of a longer sentence. But in general, the situation shows that agreements with the US authorities are not worth the paper they are written on.

The best decision a crypto project can make is not to have any business with the United States, not to work with its citizens, and not to enter into dialogues with regulators and services.

There are much more promising markets with sane and negotiable regulators and/or with minimal government intervention. Some projects are already starting to realize this.

Bitcoin fell 15% in April (the first negative month since August 2023). The fear index is at its lowest since January 2024. At the same time, all the global reasons for Bitcoin’s growth remain in force, and the mathematics that I spoke about leaves no choice in the medium-term prospects of the asset.

The priority option today is Bitcoin in the range with the lower limit at 59000-58000 and the upper limit at 65000-65500.

Alternative - consolidation below 58000.

Which option will work will most likely become clear within a couple of hours after the Fed meeting.
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