Risk assets are like soft persimmons, and any person or thing can come in and squeeze them. When emotions heat up, they come out in time to cool them down.
Bitcoin will be halved soon, will the market fall? Recently, friends have been asking whether the market will continue to fall. Let’s analyze it. According to the rules of the previous halvings, the market will fall in the month of halving.
We can refer to the fact that after the BCH and BSV halvings, the entire market plummeted. This has some reference value for the BTC halving. After all, the market capitalizations of BCH and BSV are relatively small, and both can cause a big drop. So will the power of BTC after halving be greater?
Referring to the BTC halving history, 21 days before the halving, the BTC price reached a stage high, and then fell all the way until one month after the halving, when it began to recover.
So this time the price has fallen so much, so the market will not fall sharply unless there is a black swan event. However, I am very optimistic about the market after the halving. From the perspective of supply and demand, the halving reduces the market supply, and the demand gradually increases, which is bound to push up the price of Bitcoin, and institutions are rushing to enter the market.
The trend of the copycat stocks is basically showing a sharp drop as expected, and those who have taken profits before can take them back at a lower price.
As for why you are not in a hurry to answer it?
I think that the adjustment of Bitcoin’s position is not enough. It will continue to fall, and it is impossible for the copycat to rise independently.
In addition, after the copycat stocks experienced a big surge in the past few months, although the market value has dropped in the short term and some have gone back to where they were, I personally estimate that they will not pull back to new highs so quickly, so there is no need to rush, it is better to hold on to the chips and observe.
Then my personal total holding ratio is roughly 50% for Bitcoin, 30% for Ethereum, and 20% for SOL + various altcoins.
The 20% copycat currency has lost a lot of value, basically avoiding the 20%+ drop in a single currency, so there is no overall impact, and the account can only be regarded as a normal fluctuation.
When it was very fomo, almost everyone in the market said that Bitcoin had reached a new high and the alt season was coming. I have pointed out a lot of unreasonable things recently, such as the alt valuation, market sentiment, and technical support. I publicly said that the overflowing leveraged positions would be removed, the alts would be subtracted, and tens of millions of U would be retained.
Of course, my operation is based on my own configuration. If I were to buy all the counterfeit stocks, I would definitely have to reduce more.
As for Bitcoin and Ethereum, they didn't fall much.
Some people argue and say, why are you pretending to be so cool? Dabing, Yitai, and Sol also fell, so why didn’t you hide?
1 I think that the prices of Dabing and Yitai will not fall much. Even if Sol falls a little more, the overall proportion will not be high.
2 The overall outlook for this year is still positive, and being completely short may make you anxious. Just like many people reduce their positions, but when they see that the market starts to rise again in the short term, many people add them back, resulting in ineffective reduction of positions.
When the market is in fomo, keeping u is a sin and it is very against human nature.
Therefore, based on personal mentality assessment, it is better to avoid those with greater risks, such as leverage and counterfeit goods.
3 I think there will be no problem with Dabing, Yitai and Sol in the long run, but there is a high probability that the copycat ones will fall and never recover, which is the most dangerous.
4 Have I been showing off in these four and a half years? Isn’t being awesome a normal part of life?
So now some people ask me whether we should sell Dabing and the concubine as well. I think it is unnecessary.
When the position is empty and the short-term pull-up is more anxious than being trapped, I think many people probably have a deep understanding of this wave...
Besides, the market is still optimistic this year.
It's not just empiricism, every stage of the market needs to be constantly evaluated and keep pace with the times.
20 large pie spots were reduced between 62000-63000.
Money has always been hard to make, isn’t it harder every year?
In terms of contracts, I started going long since the rise last year and started going short at a high level on March 12. The gains can be seen from the daily level. I stopped profit perfectly and left enough profit in my hands to grasp the market!
But why can we still make money when the domestic environment is not good? Even if the hedging does not lose money, it is good.
After all, we are also looking for trends and opportunities in the larger macro environment.
Investment requires a global perspective. If you are too limited to a local environment, you will not be able to reasonably view the valuation of the species. For example, in the past few years, housing prices were much higher than those in other developed countries, but some people still think that they will continue to rise...
If you don't know how to operate and are still confused, please#ENA #WIF #BOME $SOL $DOGE
