#BTC减半意味着什么
Bitcoin: The fourth halving is about to be completed, reducing annual selling pressure by $10 billion
Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving on April 20, 2024, and the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125, further reducing the output and selling pressure of Bitcoin.
Before the halving, the annual output of Bitcoin was about 330,000. Calculated at a price of $65,000, it will bring more than $20 billion of selling pressure to the market. After the halving, the annual selling pressure of Bitcoin will also be reduced by half, which is equivalent to a reduction of $10 billion, effectively alleviating the selling pressure of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: There have been three halvings in history, and they have all achieved a sharp rise in the year after.
Bitcoin has experienced three halvings in history, in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020, respectively. The common point is that there has been a sharp rise in the year after the halving. There are less than 15 days left before the fourth halving. The market has begun to price in the impact of the halving, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate upward;
Bitcoin: Spot ETFs have accelerated capital inflows, boosting Bitcoin's continued upward movement
On January 10, the BTC spot ETF was approved, which has since brought in tens of billions of dollars in over-the-counter capital inflows, boosting Bitcoin's continued upward movement. In previous bull markets, BTC usually had multiple callbacks of more than 20%, but this round of bull market has not had many callbacks and the callback amplitude is not large, thanks to the continuous inflow of over-the-counter funds.
Referring to the gold ETF, after the launch of the first gold ETF, gold ushered in a nearly 10-year long bull market, with an increase of more than 400%. Compared with gold, BTC is safer to store, more convenient to trade, and faster to transfer, and has superior value storage characteristics. The current market value of gold is $14.5 trillion, while the market value of Bitcoin is only $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin still has 10 times the space to reach gold, and the launch of Bitcoin ETF is more popular than the gold ETF of that year, and the speed of capital inflow is far ahead.
After Bitcoin halved on July 12, 2016, the market subsequently retreated by about 28%; after nearly three months of fluctuations, the price returned to the price level before halving;
When Bitcoin halved on May 11, 2020, the callback range was 20%; and then it consolidated for about 77 days to create a new high again.
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