The halving month is coming soon:
Unknowingly, the important halving month in our currency circle has arrived. For details, take a look at the picture below:
This bullish turn has clearly determined that it is the bottom of 60770, so if there is a chance for the 62000-60000 range in the future, I will consider adding it to the third level of the short position. Of course, if you don’t give this opportunity, then let’s wait and see when the pie is halved! Will there be a vacuum of short-term benefits after all the benefits are gone?
The short-term upward pressure is in the range of 72668-73788. Once it completely breaks through and does not fall below the 73788 position, it will go above 81000 and then seek the daily limit. The short-term downward support level is in the 68000-67100 range
Tell me about the inscriptions
Previous articles have said more than once that April belongs to Inscription. It can be seen from the recent performance of ordi that it has always wanted to perform, and major Inscriptions have also chosen April to go online.
Talk about ordi
The price of Audi 75 is just a Fibonacci technical resistance level. It is expected that it will continue to break through in a short time. Just from the triangle itself in the above figure, the price of around 84 will be seen after the breakthrough.
More importantly, Ordi has been fluctuating widely for more than four months since it surged higher in December last year, and both the duration and amplitude of the fluctuations have been sufficient. I mentioned my opinion about Ordi before, thinking that 50 can only be achieved by inserting pins. It is a very good buying position when it falls to around 61
In fact, judging from the 3D level K-line, the closing lines remain above 61, and the lowest pin drops to around 55. As long as there is no leverage, the spot price at a low level will give you enough time to buy.
The top of Ordi's exchange rate appeared on January 2, and Ordi also reached a high of 92 on the same day, so January 2 was regarded as the end of a wave of rising prices. The exchange rate reached lows on March 19 and March 28, forming an obvious double-bottom structure, and has completed the breakthrough of the double-bottom. Therefore, it can be considered that the lowest point on March 28 is the beginning of a new round of market conditions. Real Ordi price reached lowest on March 19
Based on the above time point, Ordi has completed a complete 5-wave rise. Combined with the triangle breakthrough and the double bottom structure breakthrough of the exchange rate mentioned earlier, Ordi is likely to have completed its 2-wave correction, and a new rise has begun.
When does the cottage season come?
It is not the percentage of BTC returns that triggers the “alt season”, but its wealth effect. Since September 2023, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has increased by $941 billion, approaching $1 trillion
Most altcoins are relatively small and it doesn’t take much wealth within them to significantly increase their price. Currently, the market cap of altcoins as a whole, excluding ETH and major stablecoins, is $588 billion
What we need to pay close attention to is the inflow/outflow of CEXs. Since January 11, the inflows of the three most commonly used CEXs are:
OKX - $1 billion in inflows Robinhood - $263 million in inflows Binance - $247 million in inflows
Meanwhile, cumulative inflows into ETFs have reached over $10 billion. It’s clear that ETFs are the new preferred way to buy and hold Bitcoin.
On the other hand, there is no ETF for altcoins. First CEX, then DeFi, these are the two ways to get altcoins
Increased inflows into CEX = investors looking to buy altcoins
Not really. Simply put, this cycle adds one more step to the market. We go from CEXs → DEXs to ETFs → CEXs → DEXs, and this additional step will result in hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into CEXs. We just need some patience. Where are we heading?
If we have the same pattern as the last cycle, we will see altcoins (excluding BTC - ETH - USDT - USDC - DAI) having a market share of around 38% at the peak
With a total cryptocurrency market cap of $7.8 trillion, altcoins would have a market cap of about $2.96 trillion, or 5.1 times the current value.
The final stage will come when the funds flowing into CEXs/DeFi are equal to or even higher than those flowing into ETFs
Next, let’s talk about the trend after the halving. How should we do it?
This round, I think the top of the pie is likely to be over 120,000 dollars, so I think if the pie exceeds 120,000 dollars, we need to consider the issue of batch shipment cycles to escape the top. More than 150,000 dollars is the maximum limit I think this round, and it is also the maximum value I know this round. To put it bluntly, when the subsequent market price exceeds 150,000 dollars, I will consider selling all the big pie positions and wait for the bear market.
Regarding Ethereum in the long term, I conservatively believe that shipments of more than 10,000 u in batches and daily limits of more than 12,000 u can be cleared and waited for the bear market.
"In a bull market, everyone will buy. Who wouldn't buy if they can make money? In a bull market, the most important thing is to sell. How to ensure that you sell, lock in profits, and put money in your pocket is the kingly way. Because, no matter how much you make, you will make money in the end. When the next bear market comes, you will have the funds to buy at the bottom and pick up cheap chips. On the other hand, when a real bear market comes, it is right to be brave enough to endure it and buy happily.
The market is turbulent at present, and a violent bull market is about to come. It is lonely to walk alone. Those who hoard spot goods in the hope that the spot prices will double. If you can't hold on, please click on my avatar to see the pinned page on my homepage. Please follow me and I will share my bull market strategy deployment with my fans free of charge.
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