Is the non-agricultural sector “fake” again? Philadelphia Fed admits job growth was overstated by 800,000!

The actual growth of employment in the United States in 2023 is far lower than the effect of "Bidenomics" claimed by the White House, and the inflated number may further increase in 2024...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's latest State Payroll Employment Early Baseline Revision report shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been fabricating jobs.

In December last year, the Philadelphia Fed found that non-farm employment data from March to June 2022 was overestimated by 1.1 million. This time, the Fed's analysts found that the number of new jobs created in 2023 was overstated by 800,000 jobs, and that the number may increase further in 2024.

$$$$$$$$$BLS data shows that the United States will add an average of 230,000 new jobs per month in 2023 (green), but the real average monthly new jobs after QCEW (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage) correction There are only 130,000 jobs (red). Analysts believe that the actual growth of employment in the United States in 2023 is far lower than the effect of "Bidenomics" claimed by the White House.

CES is a monthly survey that collects rapid data through sampling. The QCEW is a quarterly survey based on state government unemployment insurance records, providing more accurate and comprehensive data. Therefore, QCEW is more comprehensive and detailed than CES and is often used to revise CES estimates to ensure long-term data accuracy.

The above analysis also looked at state-by-state employment changes from June to September 2023 and found significant differences compared with the current employment statistics (i.e., CES) data used in the BLS nonfarm payrolls report. "Specifically, employment changes in 24 states were lower than estimated, 3 states experienced higher than expected employment changes, and the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia also experienced lower than expected changes but the difference was smaller. This indicates that BLS employment changes Data may need correction.

Some more detailed data also showed that pre-baseline CES estimates may have overestimated actual job growth, while the QCEW-revised data more accurately reflected the actual situation. Throughout 2023, the actual figure for job growth in the 50 states and the District of Columbia (1.5%) was lower than the pre-baseline CES estimates (1.9% and 2.0%), and the QCEW-revised growth rate was in line with the actual figure (1.5% %). Likewise, in the third quarter of 2023, real growth (0.5%) was also lower than the pre-baseline CES estimate (1.7%), and the QCEW-revised growth rate was again in line with actual data (0.5%).

In addition, because QCEW data takes a long time (such as more than a year) to be processed and included in official BLS reports, employment data released during this period may not fully reflect actual employment conditions.

In fact, the BLS has been consistently lowering nearly all of its initial employment data for 2023, with 10 of the 11 employment reports through December 2023 being revised down.