【Blockchain Briefing 0320】
1. Market trend:
1. Short-term support level 62116
2. Short-term pressure level 65090
3. Mid-term support level 57777, 51926
4. Mid-term pressure level 67284
5. Stablecoin supply and exchange data show that there is not much selling pressure on #BTC, and selling pressure on#ETHcontinues to rise rapidly. There is no new addition of stablecoins and no sign of outflow, and the market adjustment is not over yet.
6. Options data shows that the risk of#BTC#ETH has not passed yet. The correction of the market is likely to end at the end of March and early April.#BTCwill begin to see improvement in mid-April, while#ETHwill consolidate until mid-May.
7.#BTC#ETH contract open interest continues to undergo a healthy correction. As the price falls further, open interest decreases in a zigzag manner, and the current trend has not yet corrected in place.
2. Macroeconomic data:
1. U.S. dollar index: closed up 0.22% at 103.80
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.2910%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rate, closed at 4.6970%
3. Gold price: closed down 0.15% at $2,157 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: closed up 0.30% at $82.44 per barrel
5. Stock market: The Dow rose 0.83%, the S&P 500 rose 0.56%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.39%
6. USDCNY: 7.21
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Observer, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 5.25-5.50 in March is 98%, and the probability of cutting interest rates to 5.00-5.25 is 2%.
8. Cryptocurrency: The overall market value decreased by 5.57% to $2.4T, the 24-hour trading volume increased by 31.51% to $183.33B, and the market value of stable coins increased by 0.93% to 145.6B.
9. ETH pledge situation: The current pledge amount is 31.27METH, and the pledge rate is 26.02%
3. Position data of 9 ETFs:
Updated March 19:#Grayscaleis down 2,071 $BTC (-$131.85M) and currently holds 378,169 $BTC ($24.07B).#Blackrockadded 6,721 $BTC (+$427.84M) and currently holds 237,339 $BTC ($15.1B).
9 ETFs (including #Grayscale) added 5,400 $BTC (+$343.74M).
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4. Yesterday’s macro news:
1. The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, in line with market expectations. It was the first interest rate increase in 17 years, and the eight-year era of negative interest rates officially ended. It will continue to purchase bonds and cancel the YCC, ETF and REITs purchase plans.
2. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: He does not think the new policy can be called a “zero interest rate policy”;At present, there is no clear idea about the specific treatment method of the balance sheet, and it is impossible to determine the time to reduce the ETF balance sheet.
3. The "Federal Reserve's loudspeaker" spread the word: The Federal Reserve is waiting for an interest rate cut and is divided into two camps internally. Additionally, officials will not prioritize recession risks this week. However, this risk could drive its thinking throughout the rest of the year to a rate cut at some point.
4. U.S. Treasury Department data showed that China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in January were US$797.7 billion, a decrease of US$18.6 billion from the previous month. Japan’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in January were US$1.153 trillion, an increase of US$14.9 billion from the previous month.
5. U.S. congressional leaders and the White House have reached a handshake agreement to fund the national government until September 30, according to people familiar with the matter.
6. Trump asked the U.S. Supreme Court to dismiss his lawsuit to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
7. Saudi Arabia plans to invest US$40 billion in AI. In recent weeks, representatives of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund have discussed possible partnerships with Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley's top venture capital firms, and other financiers. Plans could still change, they warned. In addition, Saudi Arabia is even considering starting its own artificial intelligence company.
